Bitcoin Reclaims 95 Million KRW, Era of Buying via 'Securities Accounts' Begins

Bitcoin has once again recovered to the 95 million KRW mark. Given that the market was subdued by interest rate hike concerns just a few days ago, this rebound is certainly welcome news. However, I want to calmly examine this trend not from the perspective of 'the mood has improved,' but from 'what caused this rebound.'

The trigger for the rebound was 'numbers,' not expectations

Behind this rise is the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI). It came in at 3.5% year-over-year, falling below market expectations of 3.8%. Compared to May's 4.2%, the trend of slowing inflation is quite clear.

If inflation is brought under control, the Federal Reserve's burden to raise interest rates further decreases. If there's room for interest rates to fall, funds are more likely to flow back into risk assets like Bitcoin. Indeed, on the same day, Nasdaq rose 0.90%, and Bitcoin also climbed 3.57% globally, supporting this interpretation.

What's important is that this rebound didn't stem from vague optimism but from one specific indicator. A rise with clear grounds is far more trustworthy than an unfounded surge.

The day of buying Bitcoin through securities accounts is approaching

What's more noteworthy than the price in this news is the policy change. The government has announced an amendment to the Capital Markets Act for the introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs through its 'Economic Growth Strategy for the Second Half of 2026.'

Currently, virtual assets are not legally recognized as underlying assets for ETFs. However, if the amendment passes, it will become possible to indirectly invest in Bitcoin using only a securities account, without going through a separate virtual asset exchange. This opens a new investment channel through asset management companies and securities firms.

Here's why this is significant:

• Accessibility — Investors who found exchange registration burdensome can now access it through familiar securities accounts.
• Institutional Capital — A channel will be created for institutional investors' funds, which were difficult to directly trade due to regulations, to flow in.
• Integration into the Mainstream — This is a symbolic change where virtual assets are recognized one step further as 'investment assets' rather than 'speculation.'

For reference, the US already approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024, with over $35 billion in net inflows in the first year alone. If adopted domestically, Korea would be belatedly following this trend.

However, realistically, the market temperature is still low

Here, I want to highlight one particular number. In the first half of this year, domestic trading volume decreased by 54.6% compared to the same period last year. It's more than halved.

I see two reasons for this. One is that Bitcoin has repeatedly undergone corrections and sideways movements without a clear direction in the latter half of the year, and the other is that the domestic stock market showed strength, diverting investor interest there.

In other words, it's too early to conclude that the entire market has recovered based solely on this rebound and ETF expectations. While prices have risen, the number of people actively participating in trading has significantly decreased.

In summary: The direction is right, but the pace needs observation

One expert commented on this ETF initiative, saying, "It will be an opportunity to attract demand for virtual asset investment, but it feels somewhat late." I agree with this assessment. The direction is clearly right, but we must realistically acknowledge that we are following a market that has already moved ahead.

To summarize: The macro environment of slowing inflation and the policy change of ETF introduction are certainly positive. However, as the halved trading volume shows, the market's actual strength is still recovering.

Therefore, now is a time for observation rather than excitement. I will confirm and report whether the evidence from indicators and policies actually leads to a recovery in trading volume with the next data.