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Hello, everyone! This is a blockchain tech analyst delivering the vibrant energy of the blockchain market. On July 29, 2026, the market is still going through tumultuous times today, but we can find new opportunities and growth engines within it.
Recent macroeconomic indicators, changes in global liquidity, and movements in traditional financial markets are significantly impacting the cryptocurrency market. However, even amidst this confusion, positive signals clearly exist. Shall we take a closer look together?
The market is currently on high alert for the interest rate decision by the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). While the probability of the Fed freezing interest rates is high, some analyses suggest that a surprise hike cannot be ruled out.
In particular, the plummet of Asian semiconductor stocks spread to the U.S. stock market, causing the Bitcoin price to fall below $63,000, showing a simultaneous decline in tech stocks and the cryptocurrency market. In the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets, risk-off sentiment spread to the point where circuit breakers were triggered.
However, even in this situation, a positive perspective exists. Cryptocurrency research firm K33 expects the correlation between Nasdaq and Bitcoin to weaken, analyzing that the impact of this FOMC meeting on Bitcoin may be limited. This suggests the possibility that the cryptocurrency market will gradually show independent movements from the volatility of traditional financial markets.
Bitcoin recently experienced a significant decline, with the $63,000 level collapsing. In the derivatives market, long positions were largely liquidated, amplifying market anxiety.
However, what's interesting is that even in this bear market, whale investors are steadily accumulating Bitcoin. They accumulated 19,696 BTC in just 8 days, engaging in bottom buying. This can be interpreted as a move that values Bitcoin highly from a long-term perspective.
Furthermore, Fidelity Digital Assets evaluated that Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio could be an attractive entry point for long-term investors. The fact that Bitcoin mining difficulty is facing its first annual decline in history is also historically interpreted as a signal of a market bottom. While there are concerns about the threat of quantum computing, it is still an early stage discussion.
Ethereum has shown noticeable positive signals amidst the recent unstable market trends. BlackRock's Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $11.75 million, surpassing Bitcoin ETFs, proving institutional investor interest.
Morgan Stanley also initiated Ethereum ETF trading on NYSE Arca, accelerating Ethereum's integration into mainstream finance. The number of wallets holding Ethereum exceeding 200 million and new wallets withdrawing large amounts of Ethereum from exchanges are good signs of strong long-term holding sentiment.
Fidelity analyzed that Ethereum is trading approximately 30% below its average purchase price, nearing a capitulation zone, which could be an attractive entry point for long-term investors. The fact that Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin unveiled 'Diamond iO', a new cryptographic obfuscation technology, suggesting broad applicability in privacy and AI fields, also demonstrates the technological advancement of the Ethereum ecosystem.
The altcoin market, like Bitcoin, showed a simultaneous downturn due to fears of interest rate hikes and spreading risk aversion sentiment. In particular, Ripple (XRP) faced the risk of breaking its $1 support level, and retail investors' bullish bets were on the verge of liquidation.
However, in Ripple's case, buying interest from Wall Street institutions like Bitwise and Franklin Templeton has been confirmed, and there was positive news such as the listing of Ripple USD (RLUSD) on Upbit. Some analysts even predict that XRP could rise to $30 in the next bull run.
Solana (SOL) fell to the $73 level despite its all-time high network performance, entering an oversold zone. However, institutional interest remains, with Morgan Stanley launching a Solana ETF and Ark Invest buying a Solana staking ETF. Meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe (PEPE) generally showed bearish trends with technical sell-side dominance signals, indicating further downside risk. However, it is impressive that Dogecoin's co-founder shared his experience using it for actual payments, emphasizing the intrinsic value of cryptocurrency.
The stablecoin ecosystem is rapidly expanding, with Visa investing in all areas of stablecoins, including blockchain, issuance, wallets, and infrastructure, identifying deposit tokens and AI-powered commerce as future growth engines.
Argentine banks are embarking on the development of peso-pegged stablecoins, attempting to circumvent regulations, and Kenya is easing capital requirements for stablecoin issuers, demonstrating active efforts in stablecoin adoption and regulation across various countries.
Decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator 1inch (1INCH) launched 'Aqua', a solution to increase DeFi liquidity efficiency, and Coinbase's Layer 2 network Base introduced 'Base Verify Onchain', an on-chain identity feature to solve multi-account issues. These technological advancements support the robust growth of the blockchain ecosystem.
Real-world asset (RWA) tokens led the cryptocurrency market in July, with their on-chain market capitalization reaching an all-time high. This is strong evidence that the tokenization of traditional financial assets is establishing itself as a key growth driver for the market.
The U.S. cryptocurrency market is at a critical juncture for achieving regulatory clarity. The likelihood of the CLARITY Act's Senate vote being postponed due to the prioritized processing of Russia-Iran sanctions is increasing, leading to greater market uncertainty.
However, major institutions, including BlackRock, support the passage of this bill, and the founder of Aave emphasized that the CLARITY Act would grant banks legal authority for digital asset services, significantly expanding the participation of traditional financial institutions in the cryptocurrency market. Scaramucci of SkyBridge Capital urged for quick passage of the bill, stating that a compromised bill is better than a lawless zone.
Globally, the cryptocurrency regulatory environment is gradually becoming more concrete, with the Russian Central Bank publishing a draft of cryptocurrency trading regulations and the IMF urging stronger regulation and oversight of Brazil's rapidly growing cryptocurrency market. While this may cause short-term uncertainty, it will be a positive factor in increasing market stability and trustworthiness in the long run.
The Binance CEO cited the convergence with traditional finance (TradFi) as a key keyword for the cryptocurrency market this year. Indeed, the volume of traditional finance-based perpetual futures open interest has more than doubled since May, with cryptocurrency exchanges emerging as key platforms for trading traditional financial assets.
Bitcoin mining companies like Galaxy Digital and Marathon Holdings accelerating their transition to AI and high-performance computing data center businesses demonstrates that the cryptocurrency industry is creating synergies with new technology industries beyond just mining. The Marathon Holdings CEO even mentioned that supplying power for AI is far more profitable than Bitcoin mining.
Traditional financial institutions launching cryptocurrency and new technology-related products, such as Morgan Stanley's Ethereum and Solana ETFs and CME Group's Tesla and SpaceX stock futures, are expanding the market's reach. These movements clearly indicate that cryptocurrencies are no longer the exclusive domain of specific investors but are establishing themselves as a significant pillar of the mainstream financial market.
The market is currently in a state of confusion due to various complex factors. However, it is precisely during such times that we must view the market with cool analysis and a long-term perspective. The movements of Bitcoin whales, the robust growth of Ethereum, the evolution of stablecoins and RWAs, and the convergence with traditional finance are undoubtedly positive signals.
Of course, regulatory uncertainty and weakness in tech stocks can increase short-term volatility. However, I am confident that amidst these challenges, we can build a stronger foundation and discover new opportunities. Let's all work together to build the future of this exciting blockchain market!
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