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Hello, everyone! I'm back, your energetic senior analyst in the blockchain market. April 3, 2026, today the market is truly experiencing a tumultuous time that keeps us on our toes. With geopolitical risks from the Middle East and macroeconomic indicators intricately intertwined, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies are on a rollercoaster ride. But we can't just avoid complexity. Amidst this chaos, we must find wise investment opportunities based on clear data and facts. So, shall we analyze the market situation easily and interestingly through the major news of the last 24 hours?
The Bitcoin market has truly been on a rollercoaster recently. Some experts offer rosy forecasts of reaching $121,000 within two months, while at the same time, warnings are emerging about short-term investors exiting and long-term investors realizing losses, putting the $60,000 mark at risk. Some analysts even mention a potential collapse to $40,000 in the second quarter, further increasing investor confusion.
This is because geopolitical risks from the Middle East have hit financial markets, causing Bitcoin to correlate with the stock market and decline. The surge in international oil prices and the strengthening dollar have dampened investment sentiment for Bitcoin, a risk asset. In fact, Bitcoin plummeted 22% in the first quarter of this year, recording its worst performance in eight years.
However, not all signals are negative. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.3 billion in five months, demonstrating sustained interest from institutional investors. BlackRock's IBIT daily trading volume recorded more than double that of Coinbase, showing that regulated products have become a strong alternative to cryptocurrency exchanges. Furthermore, on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score is approaching past cycle bottoms, leaving room for a positive long-term turning point. While whale investors are currently betting on a decline and maintaining a wait-and-see attitude, CryptoQuant suggests a potential rebound to $71,500 to $81,200 in the short term if this selling pressure eases.
Ethereum also showed unstable movements, following Bitcoin's bearish trend and seeing its $2,000 support level threatened. Some analysts even warned of a potential drop to $600 if certain support levels are not maintained. Indeed, the US Ethereum spot ETF saw net outflows within three trading days.
However, positive signals are still being detected within the Ethereum ecosystem. Analysis suggests a potential medium-to-long-term price surge as selling pressure on Ethereum has sharply decreased on Binance, the world's largest virtual asset exchange, and idle funds are accumulating. There are also claims that Ethereum has confirmed its bottom by breaking through the six-month downward barrier and rising 7% in March. GlobalX launched an Ethereum covered call ETF, providing institutional investors with various approaches to Ethereum. Ethereum has ample potential to leap into a massive financial ecosystem by solving the Layer 2 fragmentation problem and benefiting from the on-chain entry of traditional financial capital like Nasdaq.
The altcoin market is seeing even more distinct ups and downs, following the trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Despite recent positive news such as Ripple's increased corporate value and entry into the RWA (Real World Asset tokenization) market, XRP has plunged over 60% from its peak, disappointing investors. While the number of XRP network addresses has reached an all-time high, actual usage activity remains stagnant. Some experts even warn that XRP could fall an additional 41% against Bitcoin, diagnosing that the possibility of reclaiming the third spot in market capitalization is very low. Criticism is also emerging that Ripple's monopolistic structure of massive XRP holdings is hindering the adoption of XRP by banks, indicating that Ripple is currently facing several challenges.
Shiba Inu is facing downward pressure due to large-scale selling by whales and the exit of individual investors. However, technical signals such as record-low exchange balances and defense of the descending wedge bottom are also being detected, leading to analysis predicting a 38% vertical surge. Extreme volatility has been reduced, and a calm before the storm, preceding a massive price breakout, is palpable, drawing attention to its future direction.
Solana recently faced an ecosystem crisis due to a hacking incident amounting to $270 million. The Drift (DRIFT) hacking incident, in particular, affected 11 Solana-based DeFi protocols, causing a significant shock to the market. However, Solana processed $650 billion worth of stablecoin transactions in just one month, demonstrating overwhelming processing power that could threaten Ethereum's throne. There are also predictions that Solana will show a strong upward trend if Bitcoin reaches $80,000, indicating that it has not lost its potential even in times of crisis.
Cardano recently stopped its decline and entered a strong rebound phase, with predictions of a 3,270% surge and news of an imminent partnership with Mastercard. Naoris Protocol launched its quantum-resistant blockchain mainnet, opening new horizons in blockchain security, while Sui (SUI) is expanding its ecosystem through the expansion of asset trading scope for its agentic wallet 'Beeb' and collaboration with the cryptocurrency neobank Erebor. Polygon (POL) launched a private mempool for confidential transactions, enhancing user privacy protection. Nasdaq-listed company ZeroStack invested $107 million in 0G tokens, raising expectations for decentralized AI infrastructure. As such, various altcoins are injecting new vitality into the market in their own ways.
Currently, the biggest variables in the cryptocurrency market are undoubtedly geopolitical risks from the Middle East and macroeconomic conditions. Iran's policy of imposing tolls on the Strait of Hormuz and military threat rhetoric have caused a surge in international oil prices, creating significant anxiety in global financial markets. Indeed, WTI crude oil prices surged past $112 during intraday trading, and JPMorgan warned that oil prices could exceed $150 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists. This oil price surge exacerbates inflation concerns and lowers expectations for interest rate cuts, negatively impacting risk assets across the board, including cryptocurrencies.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a 99.5% probability of freezing interest rates in April, but the forecast for a June cut is only 6%. John Williams, President of the New York Fed, mentioned that the economic ripple effects of energy prices could take several months to a year, implying that inflationary pressures will not easily subside. Furthermore, former US President Donald Trump's remarks regarding Iran immediately caused market volatility, confusing investors.
Amidst this confusion, efforts for institutional adoption of the cryptocurrency market continue steadily. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is asserting exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets and has filed lawsuits against state regulatory agencies, demonstrating a move to ensure uniformity in federal regulation. The US Department of Justice has cracked down on pump-and-dump schemes, working to ensure market soundness.
Discussions on stablecoin-related legislation are also actively underway. The Financial Services Commission announced that it would expedite stablecoin legislation and review cryptocurrency taxation issues, while a Coinbase executive offered an optimistic outlook that an agreement on stablecoin interest would soon be reached. This will provide opportunities for stablecoins to be more closely linked with traditional financial systems. Coinbase has received conditional approval for a US trust company license and plans to improve services for institutional investors and expand into the payments sector. The IMF also mentioned that tokenization is changing the landscape of regulated financial systems, acknowledging the impact of blockchain technology on traditional finance.
Everyone, now is truly a time that demands cool analysis and flexible responses. Geopolitical risks from the Middle East and macroeconomic uncertainties may increase market volatility for some time. It is important to recognize that Bitcoin and major altcoins may face downward pressure in the short term. However, at the same time, the steady inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs, the growth of the Ethereum ecosystem, and the technological advancements and institutional adoption efforts of various altcoins are very positive signals from a long-term perspective.
While guarding against baseless optimism, if you read the broad market trends based on facts and data, you will surely find good opportunities even amidst this tumultuous April. I wish you wise investments, and I look forward to meeting you with more useful analysis in the next column!