Spot is being accumulated, but futures are being sold off… What's the conflicting direction for Ethereum?

▲ Ethereum (ETH) ©

Despite explosive buying in the spot market and fund inflows, Ethereum, trapped by downward pressure in the derivatives market, is facing a major directional decision at a key support level.

According to investment media FXStreet on April 21 (local time), Ethereum (ETH) has shown significant changes in on-chain metrics with the recovery of the cryptocurrency market last week. In particular, as Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, risk appetite revived, prompting large capital movements. According to CryptoQuant data, whale wallets holding more than 10,000 coins accumulated approximately 700,000 ETH between Thursday and Monday.

Specifically, digital asset treasury (DAT) firm Bitmain Emergent Technologies (BMNR) purchased over 101,000 ETH last week, and smart money tracker Lookonchain detected a new wallet withdrawing 35,000 ETH from Binance and transferring it to BitGo. While retail investors are adding minimal amounts and observing, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows for 8 consecutive days, according to SoSoValue, attracting a total of $493.7 million. Exchange deposits also sharply decreased by 458,000 ETH since Thursday, indicating strong buying pressure.

While demand in the spot market is robust, the derivatives market is showing the opposite trend. For the past six days, Funding Rates have consistently remained in negative territory, exerting strong selling pressure. Due to this pressure from the futures market, the price has fallen below $2,400, threatening the realized value of $2,308, which is the on-chain average cost for investors. This is further supported by the fact that $28.4 million of the $53.4 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours occurred in long positions.

Looking at technical analysis, a bullish bias is still maintained on the 4-hour chart. The current price is settled above the 20-period, 50-period, and 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) clustered between $2,323 and $2,268, securing multiple dynamic support levels where buying interest could emerge on dips. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned just above the neutral level of 50, suggesting positive momentum.

However, the Stochastic Oscillator is entering the overbought region, indicating a potential slowdown in the upward momentum. Ultimately, whether spot demand can overcome the selling pressure from the futures market and drive prices higher at the confluence of the 100-period moving average and key trendline support will be a critical turning point for Ethereum's short-term rally.

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