Trump Declares Truce Extension…Where is Bitcoin Headed?

▲ President Trump

As the Middle East risk shifted from 'all-out conflict' to 'long-term uncertainty,' the Bitcoin (BTC) market has entered a phase of searching for direction. While fears of a short-term sharp decline have eased, there is also a lack of conviction to push for an upward rally.

According to major foreign media on April 22 (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would effectively extend the truce indefinitely until a deal is reached, following the failure of the second U.S.-Iran peace talks. While this measure immediately reduces the possibility of an escalation of military conflict, key issues such as the nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, thus maintaining market uncertainty.

The market reacted immediately. New York stocks closed lower, with the Dow Jones index down 0.59%, the S&P 500 down 0.63%, and the Nasdaq down 0.59%, indicating strengthened risk-aversion sentiment. International oil prices also surged, with Brent crude at $98.48 and WTI at $89.67. As geopolitical tensions have not been completely resolved and have entered a 'stalling' phase, both traditional financial markets and the cryptocurrency market are losing direction.

Bitcoin is maintaining a relatively robust trend in this environment. While concerns about an all-out war have eased, preventing a sharp outflow of funds, rising interest rates and strong dollar pressures are simultaneously limiting strong upward momentum. In particular, the rise in Treasury yields following hawkish remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is weighing on risk assets across the board.

Moving forward, two factors are key. First, whether U.S.-Iran negotiations actually resume and tensions ease. Second, whether energy prices will rise further due to variables such as a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. If tensions ease, Bitcoin is likely to ride the risk-asset rally again and continue its upward trend. Conversely, if signs of renewed conflict are detected, a sharp short-term decline and a rapid expansion of volatility could occur.

Ultimately, the current market is balancing between 'avoiding war' and 'continuing uncertainty.' Bitcoin has entered a phase where its characteristics as both a safe-haven and a risk asset are being tested simultaneously, and its future direction is highly likely to be determined by the two axes of geopolitical risk and the interest rate environment.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*