"Now is the optimal short-selling zone"...Bitcoin, 'strongest short position in a year' warning issued

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be maintaining its bullish trend, but an analysis suggests it is the 'optimal short-selling zone' as technical indicators simultaneously show the possibility of a sharp downward reversal.

According to crypto media outlet BeInCrypto, one market analyst identified the current approximately $76,000 range as the most favorable short (short-selling) entry point based on the past 12 months. This price range has repeatedly blocked upward movements over the past 8 months, and strong downward reversals have occurred in the same range in the past, which is cited as evidence.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $75,400 and is located at the top of an ascending parallel channel. This channel has maintained its structure for about 75 days, reaching a critical turning point where the price must decide its direction while closely adhering to the upper resistance line.

In particular, signals of decreasing volatility are appearing simultaneously. Indicators showing Bitcoin's volatility have fallen to cycle low levels, which is typically interpreted as a classic pattern preceding a strong directional movement.

Momentum indicators are also sending bearish signals. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered a compression phase, forming a triangular pattern with narrowing highs and lows, and a 'bearish divergence' has been confirmed on the 4-hour chart, where the RSI declines while the price rises. This indicates that the strength within the uptrend is weakening.

Furthermore, the MACD has also crossed below the signal line, showing early signs of a downward reversal. In the short term, whether the $74,500 support level is breached is a key turning point; if this level collapses, the ascending channel itself could break down, potentially triggering increased selling pressure.

In the medium term, the $70,000-$64,000 range is suggested as the next support area. Conversely, in case of an upward move, the $85,000-$87,000 range, corresponding to the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level, is expected to act as a major resistance level.

Ultimately, Bitcoin is currently in a state where the top of an ascending channel, a repeated resistance zone, and signs of weakening momentum all coincide. If this structure is maintained, a sharp decline scenario similar to the past could recur, and conversely, if this resistance level is broken, it could be a turning point where the market structure itself changes significantly.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*