Bitcoin Surpasses $78,000: Has It Really Bottomed Out, or Is It a Temporary Deception?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT generated image ©

As the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), distinctly rebounds, surpassing $78,500, market debate is heating up over whether this surge signals the start of a full-fledged bull market or is merely a temporary bull trap. While aggressive buying by institutional investors lends weight to the bottoming-out theory, counter-analyses suggest that the embers of a potential decline still linger from a macroeconomic perspective.

According to the cryptocurrency media outlet Finbold on April 22 (local time), Bitcoin rebounded from its February low of around $63,000, exceeding $78,500 at the time of writing. On-chain analytics platform Glassnode diagnosed the end of the bear market based on this sharp rise. With the average cost of recent buyers recovering to the $74,000 mark, many investors have passed their break-even point, entering the early stages of a full-scale bull market. Glassnode further assessed that Bitcoin has formed a solid bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range.

However, a cautious view is also raised. Former fund manager Aksel Kibar pointed to the possibility that the current price movement is forming a macro pennant pattern, where a period of consolidation is followed by a continued downtrend over several weeks. He emphasized that for Bitcoin to confirm a true macro bull market, it must decisively break through the upper boundary of this bearish flag and the 365-day moving average (MA).

Amidst these technical debates, the sharp decrease in supply within virtual asset exchanges acts as a positive signal. According to CryptoQuant data, since bottoming out in February, Bitcoin holdings across all exchanges have fallen to a multi-year low of approximately 2.67 million units. This is a stark contrast to the trend in Q4 2025, when investors deposited funds into exchanges, increasing selling pressure.

The phenomenon of massive volumes leaving exchanges is coupled with a resurgence in strong demand from institutional investors. For example, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accumulated over $1.6 billion worth of Bitcoin in the past ten days. Furthermore, Strategy also purchased an additional amount exceeding $2.5 billion earlier this week, proving the steadfast confidence of major capital in the market.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*