Thought it was a bull market…Ethereum's decline warning light is back on

▲ Ethereum (ETH), bear market, decline/ChatGPT generated image ©

Despite Ethereum securing support from whale accumulation and institutional demand, a warning has emerged that if it fails to overcome the $2,377 resistance, pressure to retest the $2,252 support line could intensify again.

According to investment specialized media TradingNews on April 23 (local time), Ethereum (ETH) traded around $2,317 after moving in the range of $2,316.88 to $2,422.86 during the day, falling 3.44% on a daily basis. The market capitalization was presented at a level between $233 billion and $282.51 billion depending on the aggregation standard, with a 24-hour trading volume of $20.31 billion and a circulating supply of 120.7 million ETH. While the recent one-month increase rate is 13.38% and the one-year increase rate is 29.66%, it is still approximately 53% lower compared to its all-time high of $4,953.73 recorded on August 24, 2025.

The most notable change on the chart is the stair-step rebound structure formed since the February low. The price showed signs of bottoming out by raising its lows from $1,840 to $1,960, then to $2,100 and $2,350. However, in this current period, a bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has occurred for the second time in the past five weeks. After the RSI peaked at 66.54 on March 16, the price formed a higher high on April 22, but the RSI did not follow, which was interpreted as a sign of slowing upward momentum. A previous similar signal led to an 8.88% correction, with the support line forming at $2,252 at that time.

This time, whale movements have emerged as a variable. Whale holdings, which were 123.75 million ETH on April 19, increased to 123.91 million ETH on April 22, confirming a net accumulation of approximately 160,000 ETH. This is a different trend from the previous correction phase where whales reduced their holdings. In addition, a $90.9 million 20x leveraged long position, the launch of OCBC's Ethereum-based tokenized gold fund, demand for BlackRock's ETHB ETF, the Ethereum Foundation's completion of its 70,000 ETH staking target, and the launch of Aave V4 were also presented as backgrounds for a medium-term bullish outlook.

The short-term turning point is clear. On the upside, the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level of $2,377 has been presented as the invalidation threshold for a bearish scenario, and if this level is broken on a daily close basis, the view could open up to $2,455, then $2,517, $2,580, and even $3,112. Conversely, on the downside, $2,252 is a key support level. This zone overlaps with the cost basis of 716,028 ETH accumulated between $2,231 and $2,250. If this support level breaks, the next demand zone is suggested to be between $2,067 and $2,085, where 1,417,672 ETH are concentrated.

The derivatives market also sent a warning signal. Open interest is approximately $12.3 billion, similar to levels before the previous correction, but unlike then, funding rates have turned slightly positive, indicating the market is leaning towards long positions. This means that if a rebound occurs, long liquidations could exacerbate a decline more than a short squeeze. Ultimately, while Ethereum holds long-term positive factors such as institutional demand and supply reduction, it now faces a critical juncture where breaking $2,377 or defending $2,252 will determine its direction.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*