"Geopolitical Risk vs. Ceasefire Expectations" Upbit on a Rollercoaster, What's Next?

Investor Sentiment Startled by Middle East Risk, Relieved by Trump's 'Ceasefire' Remarks… Upbit Bitcoin Recovers to 116 Million Won Level

▲ Bitcoin, XRP Rebound on Trump's Word… Is Upbit Market Reviving?/AI Generated Image ©

The domestic virtual asset market, which had been declining along with the New York stock market due to renewed military tensions in the Middle East, succeeded in a short-term rebound thanks to US President Donald Trump's remarks about a 'ceasefire extension'. However, trading volume is decreasing amid a deepening wait-and-see attitude.

According to Upbit, the largest domestic virtual asset exchange, as of 6:45 AM on the 24th, the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin is trading at 116,069,000 won, a slight increase of 0.14% compared to the previous day. While it had sharply fallen overnight due to Middle East anxieties, showing a strong bearish trend over a 24-hour period, strong buying interest in the last hour has recovered losses, pushing it into slightly positive territory.

This dramatic 'V-shaped rebound' is due to the rapid calming of geopolitical fears after President Trump announced last night that "the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will be extended by three weeks." Investors who had been dumping risky assets due to concerns about the war escalating are now interpreted to be returning to the market to buy at low prices following the news of the ceasefire extension.

Major altcoins are showing mixed movements depending on the specific coin. Ethereum, the second-largest by market capitalization, recorded 3,462,000 won, a 1.62% decrease from the previous day, and has not yet fully recovered from the shock. Solana is also trading at 127,900 won, down 0.70%. In contrast, XRP (Ripple) rose by 0.75% to 2,137 won, joining Bitcoin in the rebound trend.

Upbit indices, which reflect the overall market sentiment, are also mixed. The Bitcoin Group Index rose by 0.14%, but the Upbit Composite Index (UBMI) fell by 0.01% to 11,759.61. In particular, the Altcoin Index (UBAI) declined by 0.62%, indicating that the recovery of small and medium-sized coins is relatively slower.

The extreme caution among investors has led to a decrease in trading volume. According to data from CoinGecko, a global cryptocurrency market data aggregator, Upbit's 24-hour trading volume at this time decreased by 5.3% compared to the previous day. This is a result of negative and positive news intersecting within a short period, leading to a strong wait-and-see attitude, making investors reluctant to enter prematurely.

Experts believe that the virtual asset market will continue to be sensitive to 'headline news' rather than fundamentals for the time being. An official from the virtual asset industry advised, "While Middle East risks are shaking both the stock and coin markets simultaneously, the market immediately shows resilience whenever news of diplomatic resolutions, such as a ceasefire extension, emerges. However, with reduced trading volume, even small shocks can significantly amplify volatility, so conservative risk management is necessary until the direction is fully determined."

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*