Individuals cry long, but whales short... Will Bitcoin, with its dry spot demand, collapse below $70,000?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image ©

Behind the relentless upward rally of the market leader, fueled by overheated speculative capital in the futures market, the dryness of spot demand and the cold bearish bets of giant whales intersect, casting a shadow of a massive price correction over the market.

According to crypto media outlet Finbold on April 23 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) recently surged from $66,000 to $79,500, its highest since late January, driven by an explosion in perpetual futures demand in the derivatives market. CryptoQuant data analysis reveals a fatal weakness behind this dazzling rally: despite positive demand from spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) like BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, continuous net selling has occurred in the spot market over the past 30 days.

This situation is very similar to the precarious market conditions in early January 2026, when Bitcoin soared to $98,000 solely on derivatives demand amidst spot selling pressure. Experts warn that if derivatives traders begin to aggressively realize profits while selling pressure in the spot market intensifies, Bitcoin's price could quickly collapse, leading to a capitulation phase.

In particular, according to Alfracktal data, while individual investors (Retail Traders) are aggressively increasing long position leverage and cheering for an uptrend, whales, who manage vast capital, are betting on an upcoming price correction, showing a stark difference in perspective. The fact that whales have prevailed against individual investors (Retail Traders) in 4 out of the 5 most recent instances where such extreme position divergence occurred lends stronger credibility to a bearish scenario.

Former fund manager Axel Kibar diagnosed that the recent price increase has not completely reversed the macroscopic bearish trend. Technical chart analysis shows that Bitcoin has been trapped within a large bearish flag pattern in the form of an ascending channel since early February, and has already faced strong resistance and been pushed back twice at the upper boundary of this ascending channel.

Consequently, despite the market leader surpassing the average entry price of recent buyers, there is a high risk that it will plummet below $70,000 again due to structural vulnerabilities, testing the lower support line of the macroscopic bearish flag pattern. However, if spot demand dramatically recovers and market sentiment in the derivatives market turns bullish again, there remains a possibility to overcome the crisis of correction and ignite a new major rally.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*