Bitcoin, Is the $78,000 Breakout a Trap?...Warning of 30% Evaporation

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated

Bitcoin (BTC) recently succeeded in a rebound, breaking above $78,000. However, a strong warning has been raised, based on past chart patterns, that the price could plummet to $50,000.

Crypto news outlet NewsBTC reported on April 23 (local time), citing analysis from market expert Maxi Trades, that Bitcoin is on the verge of a massive correction of over 30%. Trades emphasized that Bitcoin has been consolidating within a specific range for the past two and a half months, and such long-term sideways movement within a box range has always been followed by sharp volatility. Historical data analysis showed that every time the consolidation period ranged from 64 to 114 days, a price breakout, either upward or downward, occurred.

Looking at past examples, during the first period of Bitcoin's 64-day consolidation, it recorded a 14% increase. However, during the second period, when it remained in a box range for 114 days, it plummeted by approximately 27%, and in the third period of 77-day consolidation, a price crash of 33% occurred. Trades analyzed that the current market situation is very similar to the patterns observed just before past massive crashes. He specifically pointed out that despite the ongoing decline from the high of $126,000 recorded in October 2025, no true bottom signal has yet been detected.

Trades diagnosed that the market has not yet reached the capitulation phase, which is the final sell-off stage. Accordingly, he predicted that the direction of the next price breakout is very likely to be downward, and a true bottom will form around $50,000. This implies an additional decline of over 36% from the current price level exceeding $78,000. He explained that while investors are intoxicated by the rebound, the market is, in fact, preparing for a brutal correction.

Bitcoin's price is currently at a critical juncture. The longer the consolidation period, the more energy accumulates, and the stronger the impact when a breakout occurs. Trades added that if the same pattern as previous cycles repeats, there might still be time before a full-scale crash occurs. It is time to heed the historical warnings drawn by the charts rather than premature optimism.

As uncertainty in the virtual asset market grows, investor sentiment indicators are also fluctuating. The buying pressure attempting to maintain the $78,000 level is tightly clashing with the selling pressure predicting a correction down to $50,000. If a crash of over 30% materializes as Trades predicted, a massive shockwave across the entire market is inevitable. Whether Bitcoin's future movement marks the beginning of a true bull run or a massive trap will be determined by the direction of the box range breakout.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*