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▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Whale / AI Generated Image
Bitcoin (BTC) recently showed a rebound, recovering the $77,000 level. However, an analysis suggests that the accumulation by whales is not a true bottom confirmation but rather opportunistic behavior aiming for short-term profits.
According to a BeInCrypto report on April 24 (local time), Bitcoin price is trading around the $77,670 level within an ascending channel formed since late February. On-chain data analysis firm Santiment stated that a whale group holding between 10,000 BTC and 100,000 BTC resumed accumulation on April 22. This whale cohort previously showed a pattern of repeated buying at local lows, such as increasing their holdings from 2.26 million BTC to 2.27 million BTC in early February when Bitcoin was below $62,000.
This recent buying spree by whales coincides with a technical indicator, the moving average crossover. Whale accumulation began on the day a golden cross occurred on the 12-hour chart, where the 20-day exponential moving average crossed above the 200-day exponential moving average. This suggests a strong short-term trading nature, aiming to profit from a technical rebound rather than confidence in the market's long-term value. Whales are operating around $77,000, not at the bottom range of $68,200.
The movements of long-term investors show a contrasting trend to that of whales, adding to market instability. According to Glassnode's Net Holder Position Change indicator, the accumulation by medium-term investors peaked at 38,401 BTC on April 21, then sharply dropped by 16% to 32,303 BTC in just three days. This is evidence that confident investors, the market's core support base, are either observing or offloading their holdings rather than participating in this rebound.
On April 22, Bitcoin faced strong resistance at the top of the ascending channel, $79,528, and reversed downwards. This shows that whale-only buying, without the backing of long-term holders, has limitations in breaking above the channel's upper bound. If it fails to surpass $79,528 on a daily closing basis, a correction to the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level of $75,523 is widely expected.
The current cryptocurrency market is at a crossroads, facing a dead cat bounce, a temporary rebound driven by whales. If it fails to break $79,528 and even the $75,523 support level breaks, the price could fall to $71,043 and further down to the channel's bottom at $62,559. Investors should not be swayed solely by whale accumulation figures but should cautiously respond by confirming the return of long-term holders.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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