Bitcoin, Long Premium Collapses..."Everyone is Betting on a Decline"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

As the Bitcoin (BTC) market remains in a sideways trend, an analysis suggests that investor sentiment is leaning towards bearishness, with short-selling positions continuously increasing in the derivatives market.

Crypto media outlet NewsBTC recently reported that despite Bitcoin's attempts to rise, a 'contrarian betting' phenomenon is occurring, where traders are expanding their short positions instead.

Key indicators include futures premium and funding rates. The short-term futures premium (7-day basis) has sharply narrowed in just a few days, falling to a level where it has almost disappeared compared to spot prices. This means that market participants are no longer paying a premium for leveraged long positions, suggesting that expectations for a rise have weakened.

Funding rates also continue to remain in negative territory. This is not a short-term temporary phenomenon but is interpreted as a signal that short-selling positions are steadily accumulating across the market. Indeed, analyst Axel Adler Jr. commented on this, stating, “The market structure is rapidly shifting towards bearishness.”

However, there is also a view that such bearish betting does not necessarily mean a decline will follow. Some analysts define the current situation as a 'disbelief phase,' explaining that a rally can persist precisely when most market participants do not believe in an uptrend. This aligns with the structure where the accumulation of short positions increases the likelihood of a short squeeze.

Ultimately, Bitcoin is currently in an asymmetric structure where the price is moving sideways, but positions are heavily skewed to one side. Whether the market will absorb bearish bets and turn upwards, or if it will lead to an actual decline, the recovery of derivatives indicators will be a key variable.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*