ISW "Iran's IRGC seizes decision-making power... slim chance of progress in peace talks"

Ahmad Vahidi, commander of the Revolutionary Guard, representing hardliners in Iran

An analysis suggests that since the outbreak of the Iran war, the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has effectively seized control of decision-making processes within Iran, making the possibility of a peace agreement slim.

The American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in a special report on the Iran war co-authored with the Critical Threats Project (CTP) on the 25th (local time), diagnosed the US-Iran war situation as such.

According to the report, after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died in US and Israeli airstrikes, Revolutionary Guard Commander Ahmad Vahidi and his key associates effectively seized power.

Commander Vahidi and his military inner circle are reportedly leading the decision-making process, thoroughly excluding civilian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

ISW pointed out that this is also the reason why the Iranian negotiation team, engaged in talks with the United States, has consistently adopted an uncooperative stance.

It is reported that even during the first meeting held in Islamabad, Pakistan, Iranian officials maintained an ambiguous attitude regarding the detailed contents.

This is interpreted to mean that they are not in a position to make independent decisions, and a unified negotiating stance has not yet been established within the regime.

ISW particularly noted that the Revolutionary Guard's refusal to compromise with the United States makes it unlikely that negotiations will achieve substantial progress.

Iran did convey its position regarding ending the war when Foreign Minister Araghchi visited Islamabad, Pakistan, on the 24th.

However, Minister Araghchi immediately departed for Oman again, and plans for a direct meeting with the United States have not yet materialized.

Pakistani media also reported that Iran is refusing a direct meeting with the US delegation and is demanding the lifting of the US naval blockade as a precondition for negotiations.

ISW noted that this pattern of inflexibility, adhering to maximum demands, and using preconditions to delay or block negotiations reveals a consistent negotiation line led by the Revolutionary Guard.

Iranian media previously explained Minister Araghchi's trip to Pakistan as an effort to strengthen trust with regional mediators, rather than an attempt at direct negotiations with the United States.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

US media reports that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has not fully seized power and is heavily relying on the Revolutionary Guard for state affairs.

There are also observations that the Supreme Leader is unable to engage in normal activities and communication due to severe injuries sustained during the airstrike.

It is also observed that the vacuum left by the Supreme Leader, who had mediated between the military and civilian officials, is intensifying factional conflicts between negotiation hardliners and softliners in Iran.

On this day, US President Donald Trump canceled the dispatch of the US negotiating team to Pakistan after confirming Iran's demands.

President Trump confirmed significant differences in opinion between the two sides, stating that it was a waste of time to travel back and forth to the negotiation venue in Pakistan for proposals that fell short of expectations.

However, he clarified that not sending a negotiation team does not mean resuming the war, stating his willingness to continue negotiations by saying, "If they want to talk, all they have to do is call."