"Whales 'pause' when ants cheer"...When will Bitcoin break $80,000?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break out, hindered by strong selling pressure from on-chain indicators and excessive optimism, just ahead of the psychological resistance level of $80,000.

Cryptocurrency specialized media Bitcoinist, in its report on April 26 (local time), deeply analyzed the reasons for Bitcoin's failure to break $80,000 from the perspective of on-chain data. Bitcoin exceeded $79,000 on April 22, reaching its highest level in three months, but has since lost upward momentum and is consolidating. Market analysts point to the resistance of the True Market Mean Price as the main reason for the price stagnation. This indicator represents the average purchase price of active participants, excluding dormant coins and miner profits. Currently, this figure acts as a strong technical resistance level, curbing further increases.

Joao Wedson, CEO and founder of Alphractal, noted that Bitcoin's price has not surpassed the True Market Mean Price. Wedson explained that while this indicator acted as strong support at the end of 2025, it has now become a barrier preventing further ascent. He emphasized, "Even if the price breaks through this indicator, a consolidation period of at least three days is necessary for confirmation." He also added a warning that if a decisive breakthrough fails, downward forces could regain market dominance. An analysis suggests that a sharp rise without technical consolidation could, paradoxically, lead to a significant correction.

Excessive FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) among investors is also cited as a reason for price stagnation. According to Santiment data, as Bitcoin approached $80,000, the market entered a state of extreme euphoria. On-chain analysis firms interpret the market's excessive optimism as a cautionary signal. This is because when public sentiment is overly positive, prices tend to move in the opposite direction. Santiment diagnosed, "Only when optimism calms down slightly will a breakthrough of $80,000 be possible." This suggests that the current state of euphoria needs to subside first.

Bitcoin's price is currently at $77,588, entering a consolidation phase. While institutional buying remains active, upward pressure has weakened as retail investors' chase buying slows down. Open interest remains high, indicating that the possibility of increased volatility still exists. Market participants believe that new buying funds are needed for Bitcoin to overcome the technical hurdle of the True Market Mean Price. The analysis suggests that only when technical resistance and psychological overheating are simultaneously resolved can the $80,000 mark be conquered.

The Bitcoin ecosystem is currently undergoing a technical correction ahead of the historic $80,000 milestone. Real liquidity flows and changes in investor sentiment are expected to be decisive variables for future price movements. Experts recommend focusing on the intrinsic price support and resistance levels shown by on-chain data rather than being swayed by short-term volatility. A large-scale upward wave is expected to occur once the market overheating subsides and technical indicators stabilize.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*