Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley "Q4 average Brent crude oil $90"

As the second peace negotiation between the United States and Iran remains deadlocked, international oil prices, which had fallen for five trading days, are rising again.

According to Bloomberg, Brent crude futures for June delivery were trading at $107.40 per barrel as of 2:25 PM KST on the 27th, up 1.97% from the previous session.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for June delivery rose 1.69% from the previous session to $96.00 per barrel.

On the 24th, Brent and WTI futures had turned lower for the first time in five trading days amid expectations of a second peace negotiation, but international oil prices are now rebounding as the second face-to-face negotiation fell through.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's crude oil and petroleum products pass, remains blocked, exacerbating energy supply disruptions.

According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), as of the 26th, US gasoline prices were $4.10 per gallon, a 37% surge from before the Iran war began. Diesel prices also soared 45% to $5.46 per gallon.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs analyst Dan Strueven presented an average Brent crude oil price forecast of $90 per barrel for the fourth quarter of this year in a report on the 27th. This is an increase of $10 from the previous forecast of $80.

The forecasts for the second and third quarters were also raised to $100 and $93, respectively.

Analyst Strueven explained the upward revision of the forecast, stating, "We assume that Gulf exports will normalize in late June, not mid-May as previously expected, and that production recovery will be slower than anticipated."

He then projected a global supply deficit of 9.6 million barrels per day for the second quarter.

Morgan Stanley estimated that crude oil exports from Gulf countries decreased by 14.2 million barrels per day due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a global inventory reduction of 4.8 million barrels per day.

Morgan Stanley maintained its previous forecast that Brent crude would average $110 in the second quarter, $100 in the third quarter, and $90 in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said on the 26th that negotiations with Iran would be conducted "by phone. So if they want, they can call us."

President Trump stated this in a phone interview with Fox News that day, saying, "I'm not going to send people (US negotiation delegation) to travel for 18 hours."

Originally, the US intended to dispatch a negotiation delegation to Pakistan, the negotiation site, on the 25th, but postponed the dispatch when Iran seemed unwilling to negotiate.

Ultimately, President Trump's mention of 'phone negotiations' that day is interpreted as a message to pressure Iran by effectively expressing an unwillingness to be tied to negotiations.