Independent Safe-Haven Asset?..."XRP Price Follows Stock Market Signals"

▲ XRP/AI-generated image

A research result has been published indicating that, contrary to the market's common belief that XRP is an independent safe-haven asset, it actually acts as a passive recipient, taking signals from traditional financial markets.

According to The Crypto Basic, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on April 28 (local time), researchers from Yildiz Technical University recently published a paper analyzing the reasons why virtual assets, including XRP, synchronize with traditional markets. This study, published in the April issue of the Journal of Risk and Financial Management, precisely analyzed daily market data from 2018 to early 2026 using transfer entropy and independent component analysis techniques. The research found that virtual assets are sensitive to macroeconomic indicators such as stocks and bonds, rather than creating their own independent trends.

The research team divided the financial market into seven sectors and tracked the flow of information. Stock indices of G10 countries and 10-year government bond yields act as key transmitters that determine the market's direction. In contrast, virtual assets, including XRP, remain in the position of recipients, absorbing these signals and reflecting them in their prices. This suggests that virtual assets have not become a completely independent haven from the existing financial system.

In times of economic crisis, the market's power structure temporarily changes. When unexpected variables like a black swan event occur, national default risk indicators such as 5-year credit default swaps rapidly emerge as leading indicators that move stock and virtual asset prices simultaneously. This is because during crises, risk aversion sentiment acts simultaneously across all asset classes. During this period, the correlation between assets tends to become stronger than usual.

When the stock market declines, the impact on virtual asset portfolios is much more direct than previously expected. Researchers analyzed that the increased interaction of virtual assets with mainstream finance as they mature has deepened the synchronization phenomenon. Attempts at institutional integration, such as the launch of Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETFs, have resulted in virtual assets being incorporated as sub-elements of the macroeconomy rather than independent assets. From a long-term perspective, virtual assets remain firmly anchored to traditional stock and bond markets.

Despite the virtual asset market's efforts to build its own ecosystem, the influence of traditional markets is expected to continue for some time. Investors should note that changes in macroeconomic indicators precede virtual asset prices. This study suggests that portfolio diversification strategies using virtual assets may have limitations in crisis situations. Even if the market order is restructured, the flow of information still originates from Wall Street.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*