Bitcoin, Short-Term Holder Realized Price on the Brink of Collapse... 'Sell' Bomb as Soon as it Reaches Breakeven?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Crash/ChatGPT Generated Image

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing strong selling pressure, including a surge in inflows to exchanges, as it approaches the realized price, which is considered the breakeven point for short-term investors.

According to the cryptocurrency media outlet Bitcoinist on April 28 (local time), the price of Bitcoin has fallen to near the realized price, which is the average purchase price for short-term holders. On-chain data analysis shows that as the Bitcoin price reached investors' breakeven point, a large volume of selling pressure surged into exchanges as investors sought to avoid further losses. Short-term holders typically refer to investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days and are the group most sensitive to market volatility.

Currently, Bitcoin is engaged in a fierce battle around the $81,000 mark. This price range aligns with the level where many short-term investors have accumulated significant volumes over the past few months. If the price falls below the realized price, short-term holders will transition into an unrealized loss state. Historical data shows that when the Bitcoin price drops below the short-term realized price, panic selling tends to occur, leading to deeper corrections.

Exchange inflow metrics clearly indicate the movement of selling forces. Over the past 24 hours, the amount of Bitcoin deposited into major exchanges has increased by more than 20% compared to usual. This suggests that investors are increasingly inclined to withdraw funds near their breakeven point rather than waiting for a market rebound. As the selling wall thickens, buying power for a price rebound appears to be dispersed.

Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are also warning of downward pressure. The prevailing analysis suggests that there is still room for further decline before entering an oversold zone according to these indicators. Whale investors are maintaining a wait-and-see approach, waiting for the selling by short-term holders to subside. As market liquidity shifts from a supply shock phase to a sell-dominated environment, the reliability of downward support levels is being tested.

Whether Bitcoin successfully defends the short-term realized price is the key to the market's direction this week. If the $80,000 support level breaks, a sell-off by short-term investors could follow, posing a significant risk of a sharp drop to the $75,000 level. There is also a perspective that the current selling pressure is an inevitable adjustment process for improving market health. Investors need to carefully monitor changes in exchange deposit volumes and the selling behavior of short-term holders, requiring a cautious approach at this time.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*