BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted a strong rebound for Bitcoin at the Bitcoin 2026 conference. He analyzed that Bitcoin's recent decline from its peak was due to job losses among knowledge workers and credit contraction caused by the spread of AI technology. However, he diagnosed that since the outbreak of the US-Iran war in February, the market's focus has shifted from 'AI-driven recession' to 'wartime inflation,' causing Bitcoin to start outperforming Nasdaq again. He particularly dismissed hawkish concerns about the next Fed chair nominee, Warsh. He stated that while the Fed's tightening would have a minimal impact on actual liquidity, the relaxed bank regulations (eSLR) implemented from April would create approximately $1.3 trillion in lending capacity. This analysis suggests that massive funds, coupled with wartime defense demand, will be released, offsetting the economic contraction caused by AI. Hayes confirmed a liquidity bottom and set Bitcoin's target price at $125,000.
