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▲ Ethereum (ETH)
Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum (Ethereum, ETH), has demonstrated the potential of a data-driven investment model by earning profits in the prediction market using a strategy that exploited the public's irrational psychology.
According to BeinCrypto, a virtual asset media outlet, on April 28 (local time), Buterin recorded a profit of approximately $70,000 using the 'Anti-Insanity Mode' strategy on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket. By investing about $440,000, he achieved a 16% return, empirically demonstrating how crowd psychology distorts actual probabilities.
Buterin's strategy involves allocating funds to the 'will not happen' side for extreme and sensational scenarios. He bet against low-probability events such as former U.S. President Donald Trump winning the Nobel Peace Prize or a sharp decline in the dollar's value, turning the market's excessive expectations and fears into profit opportunities.
Polymarket data showed that 73.4% of all predictions tended to conclude with 'no.' Given the psychological bias of investors overreacting to sensational news, this structure acted as a statistically superior strategy. Buterin repeatedly utilized these inefficiencies to build a stable profit structure.
He emphasized the potential for prediction markets to evolve beyond mere speculative spaces into tools that enhance information reliability. Although their accuracy is higher than general surveys due to the actual money involved, he pointed out that the current trend of focusing on sensational issues needs improvement.
In an environment of increased Bitcoin (Bitcoin, BTC) volatility, Buterin's strategy highlights the importance of an investment approach based on data and probabilities, not emotions. The virtual asset market is evolving into a new investment method combining behavioral economics and on-chain data.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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