Will Bitcoin Break $100,000? Hayes's Scenario

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Dollar (USD) ©

Forecasts that Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 by the end of 2026 are resurfacing, drawing the market's attention to macroeconomic variables.

According to crypto media outlet Finbold on April 28 (local time), Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Maelstrom, predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) is highly likely to exceed at least $100,000 and reach approximately $125,000 by the end of 2026. This level is close to the previous all-time high of $126,000.

Hayes attributed the recent market correction to credit contraction and slowing consumption due to job losses related to artificial intelligence (AI). However, he explained that after the US-Iran conflict in February, the market sentiment shifted from ‘AI slowdown concerns’ to ‘war inflation’, which acted as a factor for Bitcoin to show strength against the Nasdaq.

Specifically, the analysis suggests that inflation arising from war situations stimulates demand for hedging against the decline in fiat currency value, positively impacting assets like Bitcoin. He also assessed that the impact of hawkish Federal Reserve policies is limited, emphasizing that actual market liquidity could expand through other channels.

He pointed to the relaxation of bank regulations in April, particularly the adjustment of the enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (eSLR), which could open up approximately $1.3 trillion in lending capacity. He explained that if increased defense spending is added to this, the rise in liquidity could support risk assets across the board.

Hayes also presented a stronger scenario. In some statements, he mentioned the possibility of reaching $145,000 by the end of 2026, and even up to $500,000, and in the long term, a range of $500,000 to $750,000. However, he added that such forecasts, being highly dependent on central bank policies, liquidity expansion, and the global macroeconomic environment, could be accompanied by high volatility. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $76,343, down 1.6% on a daily basis, but maintaining a 0.5% gain on a weekly basis.

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