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Coin Market Under Pressure from Fed's 'Hawkish Freeze'... Upbit Bitcoin's Uneasy Recovery Amid Altcoin Weakness
▲ Powell, Upbit, Bitcoin/AI generated image
The virtual asset market is facing heavy downward pressure due to the hawkish (preferring monetary tightening) benchmark interest rate freeze by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) combined with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Bitcoin is attempting a slight recovery after last night's sharp drop, but it is struggling to find clear momentum for a rebound due to macroeconomic uncertainties weighing down the overall market.
As of 7:05 AM on the 30th, Bitcoin (BTC), the market leader, is trading at 113.87 million KRW on Upbit's KRW market, Korea's largest virtual asset exchange, up 0.38% from the previous day, testing its support line after a sharp decline. Meanwhile, major altcoins are universally showing weakness, with red lights across the board. Ethereum (ETH) is down 0.62% at 3.379 million KRW, XRP (Ripple) is down 0.10% at 2,049 KRW, and Solana (SOL) is down 0.48% at 124,200 KRW. However, the meme coin Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing a localized rebound, trading at 155 KRW, up 4.73%.
Amidst such sharp fluctuations and an unstable market, investors' handovers in response to short-term volatility have become more active. According to data from CoinGecko, a global virtual asset market aggregator, Upbit's 24-hour trading volume slightly increased by 3.9% compared to the previous day, indicating fierce trading activity even in a declining market.
The biggest negative factor hitting the crypto market is the delay in the Fed's monetary policy path and the rekindling of inflation fears. At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which concluded on the 29th (local time), the Fed froze the benchmark interest rate at 3.50-3.75% as expected by the market. However, three internal members voted against including the phrase 'easing bias' in the policy statement, expressing strong reluctance towards interest rate cuts and dampening market expectations.
Adding to this, news that U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a long-term naval blockade to pressure Iran into abandoning its nuclear program also dealt a fatal blow, causing international oil prices to surge. Concerns that energy supply disruptions would be prolonged sent Brent crude soaring to its highest level since 2022, directly fueling fears of prolonged inflation in the U.S. and pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up to 4.42%.
Market experts predict that major virtual assets on Upbit, including Bitcoin, will continue to see stagnant sideways movement and a bearish trend for the time being. This is because monetary policy uncertainty has reached its peak ahead of the Fed's leadership transition, and the interest rate futures market has completely abandoned expectations for an interest rate cut this year, instead starting to price in a 12% probability of a rate hike in December. Unless geopolitical risks ease or big tech companies announce overwhelmingly better-than-expected earnings, risk-aversion sentiment is likely to heavily weigh on the crypto market for the foreseeable future.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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