'Likely to pass before August'...US crypto bill anticipation stirs the market

▲ Cryptocurrency regulation/ChatGPT generated image

Investor sentiment is heating up again amid projections that institutionalization efforts, which will determine the future of the U.S. cryptocurrency market, could pass the final hurdle before Congress's August recess.

Kevin Wysocki, Head of Policy at Anchorage Digital, positively assessed the possibility of the U.S. crypto market structure bill (CLARITY) passing during an interview with Paul Barron Network on April 29 (local time). He stated, "A similar bill has already passed in the House, and support is spreading within the Democratic Party." Although the probability of the bill passing on Polymarket dropped from 82% to 46%, he interpreted this as a natural adjustment in the legislative process. He also presented a schedule: a vote in the Senate Banking Committee in May, followed by a Senate plenary session in June, House processing in July, and then presidential signing.

Key variables for the bill's passage are political ethics clauses and the adjustment of banking sector interests. Wysocki explained that ethics regulations demanded by some lawmakers could be a point of contention in negotiations but are sufficiently adjustable. In particular, analysis suggests that the banking sector is highly likely to cooperate in passing the bill to design regulations related to stablecoin profit structures favorably. The stablecoin regulation bill GENIUS was also noted for laying the groundwork for market establishment.

The market structure bill is identified as an opportunity to facilitate the revaluation of major assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP. Wysocki emphasized that tokenization technology will enhance the efficiency of the financial system and strengthen the dollar-centric order. Administrative policies, such as the strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, are also working in conjunction with legislation to strengthen the industry's foundation.

Changes in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s regulatory stance are also cited as a variable. Wysocki predicted that while the changed position from the past could act as a short-term risk, in the long term, a clear legal framework would govern the market. The trend of increasing market transparency is also continuing as regulatory authorities' administrative actions and legislation align.

The U.S. cryptocurrency industry appears to be moving beyond political debate and entering the core realm of institutional finance. Institutional investors are adjusting their portfolios, anticipating increased liquidity following the bill's passage. The market views the May Senate vote as a critical watershed that will determine future trends, and as the regulatory environment stabilizes, the pace of global capital inflow is expected to accelerate further.

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