Bitcoin, Volatility Expands..."Breakthrough to $100,000 vs. Collapse to $70,000" Where is it headed?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing increased volatility following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s decision to freeze interest rates. However, virtual asset experts are offering sharply conflicting diagnoses regarding its future direction, adding to investor confusion.

According to a report by virtual asset media outlet Benzinga on April 29 (local time), three prominent analysts presented different market outlooks as Bitcoin fell by 1.75% to the $75,000 level. The Federal Reserve System's decision to keep benchmark interest rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range for the third consecutive time, maintaining a tightening stance, dampened market buying sentiment. In particular, internal divisions deepened at this meeting, with one committee member advocating for an interest rate cut and three opposing the release of dovish signals, which increased market uncertainty.

Renowned analyst Ali Martinez is expressing strong optimism, citing the large-scale accumulation of Bitcoin by whales. Martinez noted that on-chain data shows whales are using the current correction as a buying opportunity to scoop up large amounts. He analyzed, "If Bitcoin breaks through its short-term resistance, it will continue an unhindered rally to the $100,000 mark." Martinez's core argument is that the movements of whales are similar to those observed just before past major bull runs.

Conversely, Michael van de Poppe took a cautious stance, suggesting that Bitcoin would undergo a long-term consolidation process around the $75,000 mark. He diagnosed that Bitcoin needs to sufficiently confirm its bottom support before attempting to break its previous high. Van de Poppe explained, "The current market is in a sideways trading range, waiting for liquidity to be supplied." He predicted that Bitcoin's ability to stably hold the $72,000 level would be a turning point determining its overall performance for the upcoming second quarter.

Analyst Justin Bennett, with the most conservative view, warned of downside risks in the market. Bennett raised the possibility that the current rebound might be a dead cat bounce, designed to attract buyers before a sharp decline. He analyzed that if Bitcoin fails to break the strong resistance level of $80,000, disappointing selling pressure could emerge, causing prices to fluctuate significantly. Bennett emphasized risk management as the top priority, stating that hasty chase-buying in an unfavorable macroeconomic environment could lead to asset losses.

Another variable that will determine the market's direction is whether Strategy (the company) maintains its continuous buying momentum. The company has consistently bought Bitcoin with funds raised through recent perpetual preferred stock (STRC) issuance, supporting the price floor. However, internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve and energy price volatility due to escalating tensions in the Middle East are hindering the asset market. Bitcoin is engaged in a fierce tug-of-war between various analytical models and macroeconomic indicators, exploring its next direction.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*