Bitcoin, Optimism for $90,000 Breakout Explodes...What's the Real Chance of a Rise?

▲ Gold, Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

Optimism that Bitcoin (BTC) price will break $90,000 is dominating social media. However, an analysis suggests that, given past instances where public predictions were wrong, this could instead be a harbinger of a price correction due to market overheating.

According to crypto media outlet NewsBTC on April 30 (local time), on-chain analytics firm Santiment announced that its social mention metric, which measures the volume of Bitcoin-related mentions on social media platforms, has recently surged. Santiment analyzed posts mentioning specific price ranges on major social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and Reddit to ascertain the current sentiment of investors.

According to the analysis, immediately after negative forecasts predicting a drop in Bitcoin price to between $50,000 and $59,000 flooded in early April, the price actually rebounded, surpassing $79,000. This counter-intuitive market movement, where the market rebounds when public pessimism is at its peak, was proven by the data. Santiment explains that the virtual asset market tends to move in the opposite direction of what the majority expects.

Currently, the situation has completely reversed, with optimism for a price increase to between $90,000 and $99,000 overwhelming predictions of a drop below $60,000. The ratio of positive to negative sentiment for Bitcoin stands at 1.38 to 1. This means that for every one negative post, 1.38 positive opinions are posted, indicating a widespread optimistic atmosphere among investors.

In the case of Solana (SOL), stronger optimism has formed than for Bitcoin, with positive mentions being about three times more frequent than negative opinions. Santiment emphasized, "Coin price predictions are the best way to determine the opposite direction the price will go." This data suggests that the FOMO phenomenon, driven by retail investors, is forming a short-term market top.

Although Bitcoin's price has fallen somewhat from its recent high, expectations for a $90,000 breakout on social media remain unbroken. Santiment warned that when the crowd is most confident, the market can move in unexpected directions. The current excessive optimism is more likely to act as a signal to induce profit-taking sales rather than as momentum for further gains.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*