Abnormal winning rates suspected of insider trading have been detected in military and defense-related betting on Polymarket, according to a recent report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC), a U.S. non-profit investigative organization. According to CoinDesk, the report pointed out, "An analysis of transaction data from January 2021 to mid-March 2026 showed that while the winning rate in typical political markets is 14%, the winning rate in defense-related markets reached 51.8%. Certain wallets made large bets just before classified operations, generating profits of approximately $1.8 million." ACDC added, "Measures such as strengthening user identity verification and withholding profit payments for suspicious transactions are necessary."
