XRP, why does it seem to rise but can't... What are the hidden bearish signals?

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XRP (Ripple) is in a paradoxical situation where investor sentiment is overheated, but supply and demand and technical indicators are weakening, leading to increased downward pressure contrary to rebound expectations.

According to investment media FXStreet on April 30 (local time), XRP has been fluctuating around $1.37 and failed to break through the $1.40 supply zone, continuing its bearish trend. The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates frozen at 3.50-3.75% and maintain its hawkish stance also put pressure on investor sentiment.

In terms of supply and demand, retail investor participation has significantly slowed down. Futures open interest decreased from $2.52 billion to $2.45 billion, a significantly lower level compared to the $10.94 billion recorded last July. This is interpreted as a sign of insufficient market confidence to sustain an upward trend.

On the other hand, spot XRP ETF funds recorded net inflows for two consecutive days. $3.59 million flowed in on the 29th and $2.20 million on the 28th, bringing the cumulative inflow to $1.3 billion and the average net asset size to approximately $1.04 billion. However, the inflow volume is limited, and it is deemed insufficient to drive a price rebound.

Santiment data showed an overheating of investment sentiment. XRP recorded the second-highest bullish sentiment on social media in two years, and news of its integration into the Japanese Rakuten ecosystem fueled expectations. Rakuten Wallet users can now convert points to XRP and use them for direct payments. However, Santiment analyzed that such positive news often reflects its effects over time after initial overheating, rather than leading to an immediate price surge.

Technically, downward pressure is also dominant. XRP remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45, indicating a bearish zone close to neutral. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also shows a slight negative trend, maintaining downward momentum. Short-term resistance is set at $1.41, and support at $1.35; if this range breaks, there is potential for further decline to $1.30.

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