Signals from the $27,000 Era…Bitcoin Bottom Debate Reignites

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©CoinReaders

As the possibility of Bitcoin entering an 'undervalued zone' is raised, investors' attention is drawn to signals that the market is heading towards a bottom.

According to the cryptocurrency specialized media Bitcoinist on May 1 (local time), a clear exodus of short-term investors is observed in the Bitcoin (BTC) market, indicating structural changes. Based on CryptoQuant data, the proportion of UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs) held by 1-week to 1-month holders has fallen to 3.91%, which is the lowest level since October 2023, when Bitcoin was trading at around $27,000.

Market sentiment has also cooled rapidly. In a survey conducted by Coinbase Institutional Research and Glassnode involving 91 global investors from March 16 to April 7, 82% of institutional investors and 70% of non-institutional investors assessed the current market as a 'late bear market'. This is a sharp increase from the approximately one-third level observed in December last year.

Conversely, the perception of price is quite the opposite. Approximately 75% of institutions and 61% of retail investors responded that Bitcoin is currently undervalued. Views considering it overvalued were extremely limited. In the Bitcoin dominance outlook, expectations for an increase decreased from 40% to 25%, while 54% expected the current level to be maintained, and 21% anticipated a decline.

On-chain indicators also point in the same direction. Analyst Woo Min-gyu's BCMI index, which evaluates MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), NUPL, SOPR, and investor sentiment, recently rose from 0.26 to 0.37, entering a range historically corresponding to an 'undervalued zone'. However, the 90-day average still shows a downward trend, suggesting that selling pressure has not been fully alleviated.

In this regard, experts evaluate the current market as a 'value accumulation zone'. Analysis of past cases shows that cycle bottoms often formed within 3 to 6 months after the 1-week to 1-month UTXO proportion dropped to such levels. However, caution is also advised, suggesting it is still too early to confirm the final bottom.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*