Whales Awakened After 6 Months, How Far Will Dogecoin's Relentless Rally Go?

▲ Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF/ChatGPT generated image ©

Dogecoin (DOGE), the eternal meme coin leader, is opening the curtain on a new bull market, staging a four-day rally fueled by a record-breaking accumulation storm from whales and an influx of derivatives funds from retail investors.

According to investment media FXStreet on May 1 (local time), Dogecoin has recorded a return of approximately 10% this week alone, continuing to trade above $0.1000 and building strong short-term upward momentum. Demand is surging across both spot and derivatives markets, a positive sign typically indicating that large market capital is circulating into the meme coin sector.

CoinGlass data analysis shows that Dogecoin's derivatives market open interest increased by more than 3% in the past 24 hours, reaching $1.67 billion. This reflects active position building in the market. At the same time, the funding rate decreased from 0.0057% on Thursday to 0.0013% but remains positive, which is interpreted as a healthy correction where excessive optimism from long position holders is somewhat subsiding, reducing premium burdens.

The movements of whales, referring to large wallet investors, are even more explosive. According to blockchain analytics platform Santiment data, Dogecoin whale on-chain activity reached a six-month high on Thursday, with a staggering 739 large transfers valued at over $100,000. Notably, 149 giant whale wallets holding over 100 million Dogecoins increased their holdings to an all-time high of 108.52 billion coins, demonstrating strong interest in the leading asset.

Technical indicators also point to a clear short-term bullish bias. The price has surpassed both the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.0975 and the 100-day EMA at $0.1046. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located near 74, in the overbought territory, indicating strong upward momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also extending into the positive territory above the signal line, suggesting positive upward pressure. However, the possibility of a short-term pullback due to indicator overheating cannot be ruled out.

If the rally continues, the key will be whether it breaks past the primary resistance level of $0.1161 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.1239, which has been suppressing the long-term trend. If these barriers are decisively overcome, an explosive further rise towards $0.1565 can be anticipated. Conversely, if downward pressure intensifies, the 100-day EMA at $0.1046 is expected to act as the primary support level, and strong buying interest at lower prices is anticipated around the psychological defense lines of $0.1000 and $0.0975.

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