"Active Buyers Missing, Empty Rally" Bitcoin Short-Term Volatility Expected to Increase

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Gold/AI-generated image ©

While the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), is holding above $75,000 and solidifying a technical upward structure, an analysis of underlying data reveals a warning that actual buying demand is decreasing, requiring investors' attention. The analysis suggests that an empty momentum might be hidden within what appears to be a robust rally on the surface.

According to the cryptocurrency specialized media Bitcoinist on May 2 (local time), prominent virtual asset analyst MorenoDV exposed the fragility of the current market by pointing out internal market data that contradicts Bitcoin's price increase. On the chart, Bitcoin has steadily raised its lows since the March bottom, climbing to around $76,000, appearing to be on the verge of an upward breakout.

However, the funding rates on Binance, the world's largest exchange driving global derivatives liquidity, tell a completely different story. Despite the current price increase, funding rates are barely moving near 0. In a typical bull market, an surge in leveraged long (buy) positions betting on further rises should push funding rates up, but aggressive capital driving these positions is currently missing.

The situation is similar in the spot market. MorenoDV analyzed that taker buy volume, which represents immediate market price purchases, is continuously decreasing, inversely proportional to the price increase. This means that while the price continues to rise, the number of active buyers willing to urgently purchase Bitcoin, even at a premium, is dwindling. This abnormal discrepancy, where prices rise but internal demand falls, creates significant uneasiness in the market.

Two conflicting interpretations coexist regarding this situation. One is a positive scenario where large institutional investors are quietly accumulating volume through limit orders to avoid shocking the market. On the other hand, a negative interpretation also gains traction: that it's merely a weak market where prices rise even with small order books simply because selling pressure has disappeared. If the latter is true, even a small amount of selling could cause the upward rally to collapse like a sandcastle.

Currently, Bitcoin is poised to break through the strong resistance level of $77,000-$78,000 from the $77,400 mark. If it maintains the short-term support zone of $73,000-$74,000, an upward momentum towards $82,000 could be expected. However, if it fails to break through and even the major support levels collapse, it could plummet to the $69,000-$70,000 range. Therefore, market attention is focused on the current precarious rally accompanied by empty demand.

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