XRP Must Break Through 1.1 Billion XRP Sell Wall... XRP's Fateful Two Weeks

▲ XRP/AI-generated image ©

XRP (Ripple) has once again surpassed $1.40, making the breakthrough of the $1.50 resistance level, which has been an obstacle throughout this year, the biggest turning point in the short-term market.

According to the investment media TradingNews on May 4 (local time), XRP traded between $1.4061 and $1.4122 during the day, closing at $1.4063. The 24-hour increase rate ranged from 0.50% to 2.02% depending on the data standard, with a market capitalization of $87.1 billion and a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $1.5 billion. This is interpreted as a sign of renewed buying interest, unlike the low-volume sideways trend observed since mid-April.

Technically, market attention is focused on the Cup-and-Handle pattern. XRP rebounded from around $1.25-$1.30 in mid-March, rising to near $1.50 on April 17, and subsequently formed a handle section between $1.37 and $1.43. If the $1.50 neckline is broken, the pattern's target price is suggested to be $1.65 to $1.70, representing an upside potential of approximately 16% to 18% from the breakout point.

However, an estimated 1.16 billion XRP worth of purchased volume is pending in the $1.44 to $1.45 range, anticipating selling pressure before a decisive breakthrough. The original text pointed out that holders in this range are highly likely to sell at their breakeven point. Additionally, the 200-day simple moving average is at $1.7930, indicating that long-term downward pressure still exists, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 9.55, suggesting a weak trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also remained in the neutral zone, between 38.30 and 48.7.

Supply-demand and institutional variables are contributing to the upside. In April, XRP spot ETF net inflows reached a year-to-date high of $81.59 million, with cumulative net inflows totaling approximately $1.29 billion since its launch. Furthermore, after Ripple's monthly escrow release of 1 billion XRP, 700 million XRP were re-escrowed, limiting the net supply increase to approximately 300 million XRP. The original text viewed XRP's rise above $1.40 immediately after the supply shock as a signal that buying demand absorbed the supply burden.

A key variable that will determine the short-term direction is the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the Clarity Act, which is expected to be reviewed by the Senate Banking Committee during the week of May 11. The original text explained that this schedule coincides with the breakout timeframe of the Cup-and-Handle pattern. If the bill review proceeds smoothly, a breakthrough of $1.50 and target prices of $1.65 to $1.70 could materialize, but if delayed or if key provisions are weakened, the pattern could be invalidated, increasing the likelihood of retesting the $1.32 to $1.35 support level, and further down to $1.20.

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