Halved from 52-week high...XRP spot ETF, opportunity or trap?

▲ XRP (XRP) ETF/ChatGPT Generated Image ©

With $81.59 million flowing into the XRP (Ripple) spot ETF in April alone, the direction of institutional funds ahead of regulatory events in mid-May has once again emerged as a key market variable.

According to investment media TradingNews on May 4 (local time), the Nasdaq-listed XRP ETF (XRPI) closed at $7.83, up 0.19% on the day. The intraday price range was between $7.79 and $7.92, and it slightly dipped to $7.81 in after-hours trading. The Rex-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) closed at $11.43, up 0.088%, moving between $11.41 and $11.50 during the day.

XRP traded around $1.4063, with a market capitalization estimated at approximately $87.1 billion. This is about 60% lower than its peak market capitalization of $216.7 billion in July 2025. XRPI's 52-week price range is $6.50 to $23.53, and XRPR's is $9.41 to $25.99, with both products trading significantly below their recent highs.

Institutional supply and demand were still presented as a key rationale. TradingNews reported that the cumulative net inflow since the launch of the XRP spot ETF is approximately $1.29 billion, with assets under management totaling $1.04 billion. While the $81.59 million net inflow in April is small compared to the size of Bitcoin spot ETFs, it is interpreted as a figure demonstrating XRP's establishment as a mainstream investment product.

Regulatory variables were also cited as factors that would determine price movements. The media explained that the review of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the Clarity Act, by the Senate Banking Committee, scheduled for the week of May 11, is a key event that will determine the short-term direction of XRP-related products. An analysis suggests that if the bill review proceeds favorably, institutional fund inflows could accelerate, but if delayed or unsuccessful, XRPI and XRPR risk retesting their 52-week lows.

Technically, XRP continues to trade in a sideways range between the $1.30 support level and the $1.40 to $1.45 resistance level. Experts believe that a break above $1.45 could open up target prices of $1.65 to $1.70 based on a Cup-and-Handle pattern, but pointed out that there remains a selling pressure of approximately $1.16 billion in that range. Ultimately, the short-term decisive factor is assessed to be whether ETF fund inflows continue and the outcome of the Clarity Act review.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*