XRP, It's Not Over Yet...Warning of a Bigger Trap After Weekly Rebound

▲ XRP/AI Generated Image

Although XRP is showing signs of recovery on the weekly chart, caution has been raised that the end of its long-term correction has not yet been confirmed.

Bitcoinist reported on May 4 (local time) that cryptocurrency analyst ChartNerd positively assessed XRP's short-term recovery trend but analyzed that a complete bullish reversal has not yet been confirmed in a larger timeframe. ChartNerd stated that while bullish signals are appearing on XRP's weekly chart, realistic caution is needed due to its long-term cycle structure.

Key rebound signals have been confirmed on the weekly chart. ChartNerd explained that XRP's weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered historical cycle low zones, and a golden cross has formed on the weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) index. Furthermore, the price is holding near the 200-week exponential moving average, and the monthly 50-exponential moving average is also acting as support. This is interpreted as a sign that downward pressure is weakening and buying interest is regaining strength.

However, a cautious approach was advised for the 3-month chart. ChartNerd viewed the 3-month chart as more crucial for removing short-term noise and confirming the overall cycle structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on this chart remains at a higher level than the low zones recorded before strong reversals appeared in past bearish structures, suggesting that the long-term correction may not be fully complete yet.

The 3-month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) index was also cited as a burden. ChartNerd analyzed that this indicator is still showing signs of fatigue in high zones, and the possibility of a dead cross in the long-term timeframe cannot be ruled out. A key warning was presented: while a golden cross appeared on the weekly chart, the MACD on the 3-month chart is acting as resistance.

ChartNerd did not deny the possibility of XRP rising in May or June. However, he viewed the current rebound as potentially being a temporary bounce within a downtrend rather than a long-term trend reversal, with a risk of forming a lower high and then re-testing lows within the year. Ultimately, for a bullish scenario to be valid, it must not only be a weekly chart rebound but also break through the long-term resistance on the 3-month chart.

XRP's future movement depends more on confirmation in longer timeframes than on short-term rebounds. While weekly indicators show the possibility of buying interest recovery, the market remains open to both further upside and potential re-decline, as long-term charts have not confirmed a bullish reversal.

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