XRP Recovers $1.40, Will It Break Through Major Resistance and Start a Full-Fledged Rebound Rally?

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Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, XRP (Ripple) has recovered the $1.40 level, gradually building upward momentum. With the resumption of capital inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and an overall improvement in investor sentiment, market attention is focused on whether XRP can break through key technical resistance levels and launch a full-fledged bullish rally.

According to investment specialized media FXStreet on May 5 (local time), XRP is trading above $1.40, showing a gradual increase in line with the overall upward trend in the virtual asset market. Notably, it demonstrated significant resilience even as the conflict in the Middle East intensified, with the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran facing serious threats. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from 40 to 50 the previous day, moving out of the "fear" phase, indicating that investor preference for risk assets is stabilizing.

While interest in virtual asset spot ETFs is somewhat mixed, investors are maintaining cautious optimism from short- to medium-term perspectives. On Monday, a modest $3.87 million flowed into XRP spot ETFs listed in the US, washing away the sluggish performance of last Friday. This brings the cumulative inflow to $1.29 billion and net assets under management to $1.07 billion. Experts diagnose that such consistent capital inflows are key factors in maintaining positive market sentiment and increasing the potential for an upward trend.

In the derivatives market, individual investor participation remains stagnant. On Monday, the open interest for XRP perpetual futures saw only a slight increase, reaching $2.54 billion from $2.5 billion the previous day. This stands in stark contrast to last July, when open interest surged to $10.94 billion when XRP hit its all-time high of $3.66. This suggests that active participation from retail investors is absolutely necessary for sustained and explosive price increases.

From a technical perspective, XRP remains below clustered exponential moving averages, failing to fully escape a short-term bearish bias. It is slightly below the 50-day EMA of $1.41 and shows a significant gap from the 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $1.51 and $1.74, respectively, indicating that an immediate sharp rally is limited. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart recorded 52, showing a positive trend, and the MACD histogram is also contracting in the negative territory, indicating that downward pressure is gradually weakening.

For a full trend reversal, XRP must firmly break through the initial resistance level of $1.41 and the $1.51 area where the 100-day exponential moving average is located to open a path for an ascent to $1.74. Conversely, on the downside, the daily low of $1.39 acts as an immediate defense line, and if this level breaks, the media predicts that strong support will be tested around the monthly opening price of $1.37.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*