"If it fails to hold $80,000, it will fall again"...Bitcoin faces its real test

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Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a rebound over the past two weeks, reviving investor sentiment across the virtual asset market, but whether it can hold the $80,000 level has emerged as a key variable determining its short-term direction.

NewsBTC reported on May 5 (local time), citing QCP Capital's market insights team, that Bitcoin recovered from a low near $75,000 to the $80,000 range. This rebound was analyzed as a result of a combination of recovering institutional demand and easing geopolitical risks. Major virtual assets such as Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL) also rose alongside Bitcoin, reviving risk appetite across digital assets.

QCP Capital viewed spot ETF fund flows as the core driver of this recovery. Last week, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of approximately $163 million. While outflows, presumed to be due to month-end rebalancing and basis trade adjustments, occurred from April 27 to 29, a single day's inflow of approximately $630 million on Friday offset them.

Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs was also strong in April. NewsBTC reported that the net inflow in April was $2.44 billion, marking the strongest monthly demand since 2026. This is about double the amount in March and has pushed the cumulative net inflow to over $58.5 billion since its launch in January 2024. However, with cumulative inflows still about $2.5 billion lower than the October 2025 peak of $61.19 billion, some assessments suggest that the recovery is not yet fully complete.

In the macro environment, the easing of tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz was cited as another factor behind the rebound. QCP Capital analyzed that the conflict premium related to Hormuz has not yet completely disappeared, and the current Bitcoin rally is closer to a relief rally than a structural shift. New short positions continue to enter even during the recent upward trend, suggesting that a short squeeze is still possible, but it is too early to say that investor sentiment has fully turned bullish.

Market analysts see $80,000 as a critical psychological resistance level. NewsBTC reported that if Bitcoin clearly breaks above $80,000 and sustains itself there, further momentum-driven upward trading is possible. Conversely, if it is pushed down again in this range, profit-taking could occur, potentially leading it back to the mid-$70,000s.

QCP Capital cited renewed tensions between the US and Iran, an energy market sensitive to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and US tariff policies targeting importers of Iranian crude oil as key risk factors. Ultimately, whether Bitcoin's current recovery will gain structural strength above $80,000 or remain a short-term rebound driven by geopolitical easing will be determined by trading flows in the coming sessions.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*