Bitcoin, directly refutes crash theories with PMI..."Market that only looked at halving was wrong"

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An analysis has emerged suggesting that the Bitcoin (BTC) bull market is not yet over, as US manufacturing indicators recovered above the economic expansion baseline. Bitcoin researcher Plan C argued that a full-fledged Bitcoin bull market has unfolded in periods where the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) exceeded 50, and that recent indicators signal the resumption of an upward cycle.

Be[in]Crypto reported on May 5 that Plan C analyzed that the Bitcoin bull market has officially begun, based on the latest US manufacturing indicators. Plan C refuted predictions that Bitcoin could fall by 50% to $50,000, pointing out that such forecasts rely too heavily on the four-year halving cycle.

The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI for April recorded 52.7%. This indicator has exceeded 50 for four consecutive months, indicating an expansionary trend in US manufacturing. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was also revised upwards to 54.5, reaching its highest level since May 2022.

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index is an indicator calculated based on surveys of purchasing managers at US factories. A reading above 50 signifies manufacturing expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. This index recovered above the 50-mark in January 2026, after approximately 26 months of stagnation. A chart released by Plan C shows that since 2009, major upward phases of Bitcoin have coincided with the Manufacturing PMI breaking above 50.

Plan C stated, “Bitcoin has never ended a full bull market while the Manufacturing PMI remained below 50. Bitcoin has always followed the economic cycle, and this time it is showing the same trend like clockwork.” He argued that investors are missing the next phase by clinging only to the risks of the four-year halving cycle.

Plan C believes that manufacturing demand, liquidity, and credit conditions now have a greater impact on spot prices than supply structure. He interpreted the breakthrough in the Manufacturing PMI as a point where funds are moving back into risk assets. The new orders sub-index for April rose to 54.1%, presented as a sign of accelerating spring demand.

S&P Global indicators also pointed in the same direction. The US Manufacturing PMI for April rose to 54.5, and new orders saw their fastest increase in four years. Production also grew at its highest rate since April 2022. S&P Global explained that inventory accumulation ahead of new tariffs and supply pressures from the Middle East conflict partly contributed to the indicator's rise. Business confidence reached its highest level since February 2025.

However, there are also counterarguments challenging the bullish outlook. Standard Chartered claimed that Bitcoin could retest $50,000 before embarking on a sustained recovery. The bank cited weakening demand for Ethereum spot ETFs and slowing institutional fund flows as reasons. Furthermore, in 2014, the ISM index rose, but Bitcoin fell, and in 2015, despite the index showing weakness, Bitcoin rose. From 2023 to 2025, the Manufacturing PMI remained below 50 for nearly two years, yet Bitcoin surged by approximately 700%.

Other analysts view the Manufacturing PMI not as a direct catalyst for Bitcoin but as a proxy indicator for gauging future US Federal Reserve policy. The S&P report pointed out that exports declined for 11 consecutive months, and factory employment decreased for the first time in nine months. Input cost inflation reached a 10-month high, narrowing the room for short-term interest rate cuts.

Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $78,000 and $80,000. The next ISM indicator will be released on June 1, remaining a variable that will determine the continuation of Plan C's Manufacturing PMI-based bull market thesis.

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