"Ants finally revived"...Bitcoin, short-term holders' losses end

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) and Cash

Bitcoin (BTC) has once again surpassed the average acquisition cost of short-term holders. Following a sharp decline at the beginning of the year, the trend where recent buyers remained in a loss-making zone has changed, leading to an analysis that short-term investor sentiment, based on on-chain indicators, has entered a recovery phase.

According to NewsBTC on May 8 (local time), the spot price of Bitcoin broke through the realized price for short-term holders thanks to its recent rally. The realized price is an on-chain indicator that tracks the average acquisition cost of investors within the Bitcoin network. If the price is above this indicator, it is interpreted to mean that all holders are in an unrealized profit state; conversely, if the price is below the indicator, it suggests greater loss pressure across the market.

The key to this analysis is not the realized price for all investors, but the realized price for short-term holders. Short-term holders refer to the group of investors who have purchased Bitcoin within the last 155 days. As the holding period shortens, the likelihood of selling tends to increase, classifying this group as a relatively sensitive investor segment in the market.

Bitcoin fell below the short-term holder realized price during the sharp price drop at the beginning of the year. As a result, recent buyers were, on average, in a net loss position. For approximately three months thereafter, this indicator acted as a resistance level for Bitcoin's price. The interpretation is that short-term holders sold near their break-even point whenever the price rebounded close to their average acquisition cost.

NewsBTC explained that while this indicator limited Bitcoin's rise during the late April rebound, the trend changed in May. With the recent rally, Bitcoin has moved above the short-term holder realized price, allowing this investor group to re-enter a profit zone. It was also noted that periods when Bitcoin traded above this indicator generally coincided with bullish market phases.

However, breaking through the indicator does not immediately confirm a strong trend reversal. The short-term holder realized price is currently located around $79,000, and NewsBTC assessed that Bitcoin has not yet created a sufficient distance from this level. Whether Bitcoin can stably maintain above this indicator has been presented as a key variable determining future short-term market trends.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*