XRP, if it surpasses $1.49, will a '2x rally' begin?..."Next target is $1.71"

▲ XRP/ChatGPT generated image

As XRP re-tests the key resistance zone between $1.48 and $1.49, on-chain indicators and derivatives sentiment have improved, but the price has not yet given a definitive breakout signal.

CoinSpeaker reported on May 13 (local time) that XRP was trading near $1.44, pressing against the upper boundary of a descending parallel channel that has limited its upside since late April. On-chain indicators compiled by CryptoQuant showed a trend from neutral to slightly bullish, and the spot market reportedly saw both buying dominance and easing selling pressure.

XRP tested the psychological resistance of $1.50 over the weekend but was pushed back. CoinSpeaker pointed out that the $1.45-$1.48 range is a critical zone that will determine XRP's short-term direction. While the price remains above the 50-day exponential moving average of $1.44, which acted as support during the recent correction, it has not been able to break above the $1.48-$1.49 resistance zone where the top of the descending channel and the 100-day exponential moving average converge.

Technical indicators are favorable but not decisive. The Relative Strength Index on the 4-hour chart shows improved momentum at 61, but it is not an overbought signal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above the 0 line, maintaining a bullish trend, but the price structure itself has not yet confirmed a breakout. According to Coinglass, the weighted funding rate for open interest turned positive on Friday and recorded 0.0048% as of Tuesday. The structure where long positions pay costs to short positions indicates a genuine increase in bullish bets in the derivatives market.

On the on-chain side, accumulation signals are building up. Santiment reported that the number of wallets holding more than 10,000 XRP on the XRP Ledger reached an all-time high of 332,230. This trend is an extension of the increase seen since June 2024. CoinSpeaker assessed that the decrease in exchange inflows and the accumulation trend below structural resistance are similar to past instances before a breakout, but this time, price confirmation has not yet occurred.

On the upside, a daily close above $1.49 was presented as a key condition. A breakout of this zone with significant trading volume would overcome both the top of the descending channel and the 100-day exponential moving average simultaneously, potentially opening the next target at $1.71, where the 200-day exponential moving average is located. An additional upside target of $1.90 was mentioned. Conversely, if XRP fails to hold $1.41 on a daily closing basis, a path down to $1.30 could reopen. Tensions in the Middle East and Ripple's Q2 network update scheduled for the end of this month were also cited as short-term variables.

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