"80,000 dollar collapse is a temporary trend"...STRC creates Bitcoin 'buy cycle'

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Although Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $80,000 this week, some analysts believe this decline may not last long. The structural buying mechanism surrounding Strategy's preferred stock STRC has led to monthly Bitcoin rallies for three consecutive months, and the upcoming STRC ex-dividend date this week has re-emerged as a variable that will determine the short-term direction of the market.

Decrypt reported on May 14 (local time) that Bitcoin traded around $79,680 after falling to $78,795 during the day. This is 0.5% lower on a 24-hour basis. On the same day, a net outflow of $630.4 million occurred from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which was the largest single-day outflow in the last three months.

Andri Fauzan Adziima, Head of Research at Bitrue Research Institute, diagnosed that this decline may be short-lived. He explained that after sweeping the recent lows around $78,000-$79,000, there was a defense of the monthly 50-day moving average and a recovery to $80,000. He added that aggressive accumulation by large wallets continues in on-chain flows.

In the market background is Strategy's preferred stock STRC. According to a K33 Research report, STRC was identified as a factor that triggered monthly Bitcoin rallies over the past three months. Through this instrument, Strategy expanded its Bitcoin purchases from 4,467 BTC in January to 22,131 BTC in March, and approximately 46,872 BTC in April.

The STRC structure operates in conjunction with the dividend schedule. STRC pays dividends at the end of each month, and recipients are determined by holders as of the ex-dividend date on the 15th. When investors buy STRC before the dividend, the stock price approaches its par value of $100, and Strategy can issue additional shares and use the secured funds to purchase Bitcoin. Vetle Lund, Head of K33 Research, believes that this Friday's STRC ex-dividend date could trigger another monthly rally.

However, a warning also emerged that the May trend is different from before. Adziima explained that it took longer for STRC to recover its par value, and so far, the actual conversion to Bitcoin purchases through this instrument has amounted to only about 1 BTC. He evaluated that the demand for STRC preferred shares appears to be stagnating after the strong momentum in March and April, stating that the mechanism still exists but lacks the scale and urgency of before.

Jeff Ko, Senior Analyst at CoinEx, pointed out that Bitcoin is not keeping pace with the AI-driven stock rally. He analyzed that the structure where AI rallies previously boosted cryptocurrencies together has broken down, and instead, AI rallies are absorbing speculative funds that used to flow into cryptocurrencies. However, he cited the inflow of over $4 billion into Bitcoin ETFs since March and the absorption of over $7 billion by stablecoins since February as positive signs.

Decrypt reported that if the review of the US cryptocurrency market structure bill proceeds favorably for the market, it could be a tailwind for the cryptocurrency market. Users of the prediction market Myriad see an 85% chance that Bitcoin's next big move will lead to a rise to $84,000 rather than a drop to $55,000. This week's STRC ex-dividend date will be a test to see whether the monthly buying pattern repeated over the past three months will continue for a fourth time, or if it has already lost its momentum.

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