Don't Trust Bitcoin's Recovery to $80,000 Yet... 'Cut in Half' Warning Appears

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) decline/AI generated image

Although Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded above the $80,000 mark, one cryptocurrency analyst diagnosed that the final bottom has not yet been reached. The recent rise may not be a full recovery but a temporary rebound within a bear market, with forecasts suggesting Bitcoin could fall further to around $43,000 before returning to a sustained uptrend.

According to Bitcoinist on May 14 (local time), crypto analyst Bee claimed in a chart analysis published on X (formerly Twitter) on May 11 that Bitcoin only has one more downside leg left before reaching its historical cycle bottom. He analyzed that Bitcoin has formed several ascending channels within a larger descending channel since its cycle peak in October 2025, exceeding $126,200.

After its 2025 peak, Bitcoin plummeted to $82,167, forming a low, then consolidated for several months before retesting the top of an ascending channel near $97,855. However, after forming a lower high in that region, the downtrend resumed, pushing it down to $59,900 in February 2026, creating another low. While some analysts consider this range the final cycle bottom, Bee believes the bottom has not yet been confirmed.

Bee noted that while Bitcoin continued to rebound above $83,000 afterward, this level also represents the second lower high since its all-time high in 2025. He predicted that after facing resistance at this price point, Bitcoin could drop to $43,035 in its next move. This represents a decline of over 45% from the price point exceeding $79,000 at the time of writing.

Bee explained that bear market cycles typically last about 365 days. As of the time he published his analysis, the current Bitcoin bear market has been ongoing for 217 days, suggesting that, considering this time frame, the final capitulation phase is yet to come. Despite recent price rebounds and improved investor sentiment, the market structure is still heavily skewed towards bearishness, according to his assessment.

However, Bee believes that once the final bottom is formed, the market will reset, and a sustained recovery towards $100,000 could begin by 2027. The key is that a recovery to $100,000 is unlikely to occur before the bottom is formed. The Bitcoin market is currently in a phase where short-term rebounds and a long-term bearish structure clash, and whether the $43,035 downside scenario materializes has emerged as a key variable for the next cycle's transition.

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