XRP, the real decisive point is 'here'... If it fails to surpass $2.4, the bull market landscape will be shaken.

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The 21-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 2-month chart has been identified as a key criterion for determining whether XRP's long-term bull market will continue. As XRP maintains a consolidation pattern within its long-term structure, whether it defends this indicator is presented as the dividing line between maintaining a bullish trend and a macroscopic collapse.

The Crypto Basic reported on May 14 (local time), citing an analysis by market analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, that XRP is still defending the core long-term technical structure it has maintained for years. According to the analysis, XRP has experienced repeated volatility and corrections since its July 2025 high of $3.6, but it continues to trade above the 21 EMA on the 2-month chart, maintaining a long-term higher low structure.

EGRAG CRYPTO diagnosed that XRP has been consolidating within a multi-year ascending triangle pattern since 2017. During this period, XRP has seen higher lows but faced continuous resistance around $3.36. The analysis explained that this long-term consolidation while defending key support levels is similar to the structure seen in major assets like Tesla (TSLA) before large cycle expansions.

Currently, XRP's key confirmation zone is between $2.40 and $3.36. EGRAG CRYPTO believes that whether XRP recovers this resistance zone is the real signal for a confirmed uptrend. The Crypto Basic stated that this zone is 68-135% higher than the current market price. The analysis suggests that if XRP reaches this zone, it will be closer to breaking multi-year resistance, increasing the possibility of a significant price expansion.

However, downside risks were also raised. EGRAG CRYPTO estimated a 40-50% chance that XRP bottomed out at $1.12 in February. Conversely, the possibility of a final capitulation sell-off was presented as 50-55%. In this scenario, it could retest the rising support trendline near Binance's lowest tail price of $0.77.

In an upside scenario, if XRP breaks through the upper resistance, an expansion path towards the $7 to $13 range was suggested. The Crypto Basic reported that reaching these price levels would represent increases of 390% and 809%, respectively. The chart also mentioned an aggressive long-term outlook exceeding $200, but EGRAG CRYPTO emphasized that such a scenario is not possible based on technical structure alone and requires a liquidity cycle of the entire cryptocurrency market.

Currently, the key for XRP is to continue defending the 21 EMA on the 2-month chart while reclaiming the $2.40 to $3.36 resistance zone. Whether this zone is recovered has emerged as a critical criterion for determining XRP's continued long-term bullish trend and the risk of further declines.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*