Bitcoin, Volatility Compressed to 0.9%...Crossroads: Break Above $78,200 vs. Plunge to $58,800

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

A warning has been issued that Bitcoin (BTC) could end its 114-day narrow sideways trading range and reveal a sharp direction of 10-20% this week or next.

According to U.Today, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on May 31 (local time), CryptoQuant on-chain analyst Maartunn warned that Bitcoin's long-term sideways movement is likely to end soon. He analyzed that Bitcoin has been stuck in a narrow trading range for over 114 days since February 2026, and its volatility index has hit a new multi-month low around 0.90%, suppressed at the bottom.

Maartunn believes that as volatility compression has reached an extreme, the magnitude of the next move will not be small. He stated, “Don’t be surprised if Bitcoin moves 10-20% next week or the week after.” U.Today reported that after a prolonged four-month period of silence, Bitcoin has entered a phase where it could attempt a sudden breakout from its current box range.

This volatility warning comes amid simultaneous signs of a lack of liquidity and strengthened long-term holding. Trading volumes on major spot exchanges have decreased to local lows, and long-term investors are locking up their holdings in non-custodial wallets. As a result, the supply of Bitcoin readily available for purchase on exchanges has also decreased.

U.Today explained that in a market with thin order books, strong price movements can occur with just a small catalyst, even without large capital inflows. Short-term events such as the Federal Reserve's Beige Book or Michael Saylor's purchase announcements could also act as triggers that abruptly change market direction, according to the analysis.

The upside scenario hinges on breaking above $78,200. If Bitcoin establishes itself above the channel's upper boundary of $78,200, stop-loss orders for short positions would trigger, causing it to quickly surge to the $81,500 to $88,000 range. Conversely, if selling pressure breaks the short-term support level near $72,000, forced liquidations of excessively accumulated margin long positions could begin, leading to a sharp drop towards $65,000 to $58,800. U.Today reported that the direction of the first strong shock could determine the overall trend for the entire summer of 2026, and market participants should prepare for the end of the long-term box range.

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