Solana to Catch Ethereum by 2028?..."DEX Volume Won, But Market Cap is Too Far Off"

▲ Solana (SOL)

Expectations that Solana (SOL) could catch up to Ethereum (ETH) by 2028 have grown again. However, 24/7 Wall St. viewed the possibility of an overtake as low due to a $196 billion market cap gap and a 10-fold difference in institutional funding.

According to 24/7 Wall St. on June 1 (local time), Solana and Ethereum are showing similar trends in that they both experienced sharp corrections after strong rallies. Solana recorded an all-time high of $294 in January 2025, and Ethereum reached its all-time high of $4,950 seven months later. Currently, Solana is trading at approximately $82, 72% below its peak, while Ethereum is at $2,012, 59% below its peak.

24/7 Wall St. analyzed that while Solana could narrow the gap with Ethereum by 2028, a complete overtake would be difficult. Ethereum's market capitalization is $243 billion, and Solana's is $47 billion, leaving a $196 billion difference between the two networks. For Solana to reach the same level as Ethereum, it would need to grow by 417%, a calculation only possible if Ethereum's growth were to halt during the same period.

Solana also has clear catalysts. On October 28, 2025, Solana received spot ETF trading approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), becoming the third cryptocurrency to pass this gateway, following Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum. As of the end of May 2026, the cumulative inflow into Solana spot ETFs reached $1.13 billion. Goldman Sachs, after disclosing a $108 million position in February, liquidated all of it in its Q1 13F report filed on May 15.

Technological upgrades also support Solana's pursuit. Jump Crypto's Firedancer client was launched on the Solana mainnet in December 2025, with a long-term goal of processing 1 million transactions per second. Currently, Solana's actual throughput is between 3,000 and 5,000 transactions per second. The Alpenglow upgrade entered community validator testing on May 11, targeting a mainnet launch in Q3 2026. This upgrade aims to reduce transaction finality time from 12.8 seconds to 100-150 milliseconds and remove on-chain vote transactions from the consensus process to increase block space for user activity.

In terms of user activity, Solana also presented metrics that surpass Ethereum. In April 2026, Solana's weekly Decentralized Exchange (DEX) trading volume was $11.49 billion, which was 51% higher than Ethereum's $7.62 billion. Solana's daily active addresses were also several times higher than Ethereum's base layer. 24/7 Wall St. explained that these differences show where actual users are trading between the two networks.

However, Ethereum's defenses remain strong. Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade is confirmed for Q3 2026 and aims to raise the gas limit floor from the current 60 million to 200 million. This represents a 3.3-fold increase, with a target throughput of 10,000 transactions per second and a gas fee reduction target of 78%. Ethereum spot ETF assets are approximately $12 billion, more than 10 times the cumulative inflow of $1.13 billion into Solana spot ETFs since October 2025. Morgan Stanley applied for an Ethereum spot ETF, including staking, on January 6, 2026.

24/7 Wall St. concluded that Solana is unlikely to overtake Ethereum by 2028. Solana needs a 258% increase to recover its peak, while Ethereum needs a 146% increase. Both are facing upgrades like Glamsterdam, Alpenglow, and Firedancer, which could revive bullish trends. However, the analysis suggests that if both networks proceed with upgrades as planned, the market cap gap is likely to largely persist. Solana may narrow the gap with Ethereum, but it is deemed difficult to completely eliminate the $196 billion difference within two years.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*