XRP (Ripple), May Monthly Candle Collapse Leads to 47% Loss Panic...Will it fall to $1 in June?

▲ XRP

XRP has lost a key support level on its monthly chart, leading to discussions about a potential fall to $1 in June.

According to crypto media outlet U.Today on June 1 (local time), XRP's May monthly candle close was interpreted as a bearish signal, dashing investor expectations. Analysis suggests that with continued Bollinger Bands compression in higher time frames and on-chain indicators aligning, the risk of the price falling below the psychological support level of $1 has increased in the coming weeks.

A key factor in the bearish outlook is XRP falling below the Bollinger Bands' middle line on the monthly chart. This middle line is currently acting as a resistance level at $2.0710. According to indicator interpretation, the longer the price remains below this level, the greater the possibility of testing the lower band at $0.9671.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also pointed to weakening buying pressure. The RSI dropped to 44.36, and a bearish divergence was confirmed. In the weekly time frame, the three-month spring consolidation ended with a downward breakout towards $1.3033, and the price is now closely tracking the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart at $1.1810.

Panic within the network also intensified selling pressure. Santiment analysts noted a liquidity cycle in late May where 22.8 million XRP inflows quickly turned into 25.24 million XRP outflows. Market participants largely liquidated their assets at the recent 15-week low price range, and the average XRP acquisition cost has fallen to December 2020 lows. As a result, the average active participant recorded a net loss of approximately 47% over the past month.

Seasonality was also cited as a concern. Historically, XRP has recorded an average decline of 4.87% and a median decline of 8.20% in June. However, U.Today also mentioned instances where a 10.2% average rise in July followed a poor June performance. The current point of hope for bulls is the extreme fear zone. If large capital absorbs the holdings of panicked retail investors, XRP could see a technical rebound to $1.37 and $1.40, but otherwise, the Bollinger Bands will continue to exert pressure towards the medium-term final target of $0.9671.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*