Musk's 46% Stake to Be Released Overnight! SpaceX's Historic Lock-up Schedule Confirmed

▲ SpaceX (SPCX) / Source: X ©

SpaceX, which made a spectacular debut by surging 15% in its first week of listing, is drawing attention from investors as it approaches a massive lock-up release schedule that will increase its circulating shares to 100% of the total over the next 14 months. With the current stock circulation ratio (free float ratio) of only 4.9% gradually expanding until the second half of next year, the enormous volume of shares supplied to the market is expected to be a decisive variable for future stock price volatility and liquidity. In particular, when CEO Elon Musk's massive stake lock-up is released, an unprecedented supply shock is anticipated, with the circulating volume almost doubling in a single day, heightening market tension.

According to crypto media outlet Finbold on June 22 (local time), data analysis compiled by Leverage Shares shows that SpaceX's stock circulation ratio will enter a full-scale expansion structure starting in August. The first major hurdle is August 8, when the existing circulating volume of 4.9% is expected to surge to 11.8%. This will be followed by an expansion to 15.2% on August 20, and then sequentially to 17.7% on September 9, forming a tight schedule. As initial lock-up release volumes are continuously poured into the market, the market's ability to absorb short-term selling pressure will likely be tested.

The increase in the free float ratio will continue to accelerate into the fall. According to media analysis, the circulation ratio will reach 20.1% on September 24, change its leading digit to 22.6% on October 9, and then to 25.1% on October 24. Subsequently, additional release measures will be implemented in November towards the end of the year, causing the circulation ratio to soar to 37.5%, and finally, by December 8, 40% of the total shares will be converted into liquid assets that can be freely traded in the market.

However, the most impactful key event in the entire schedule awaits next summer. On June 12, 2027, CEO Elon Musk's overwhelming stake of 46.1% will be released from lock-up and become available for trading. This single-day action will cause SpaceX's free float ratio to instantly skyrocket from the existing 50.8% to 96.9%. The unlocking of the controlling shareholder's stake can stimulate concerns about short-term selling pressure, making it the hottest topic of debate among investors.

The entire lock-up release process is expected to conclude in September 2027, achieving 100% full openness. Experts from the media outlet diagnosed that while this dramatic increase in the supply of circulating shares has the positive aspect of enhancing trading liquidity in the stock market, it can also cause downward pressure on stock prices due to oversupply, making it a double-edged sword. Analysis suggests that if buying demand fails to absorb the large volumes released at each point, the price trend is highly likely to be shaken.

In the short term, the most notable variable to watch is the first release scheduled for August. This period is immediately after the quarterly earnings announcement, which is receiving intense market attention, so the intensity of the selling pressure shock could vary depending on the earnings results. In a situation where there is a lack of clear independent positive news or catalysts to immediately boost stock prices, it is crucial to meticulously monitor intra-day volatility in August, when the first lock-up release and earnings announcement coincide, and focus on risk management.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*