Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr. diagnosed that while Strategy (NASDAQ ticker: MSTR) has shifted from an aggressive BTC accumulation strategy to defensive buying, the risk remains limited. He explained, "MSTR has fallen 78% from its peak, while BTC has fallen 51%. Although it hasn't yet reached MSTR's decline (-89%) during the 2022 bear market, the current trend is similar to past bear markets." He added, "Recently, Strategy has reduced the size of its BTC purchases, increased its dollar reserves, and net-sold BTC for the first time since 2022. Given its dollar holdings, structural risk is limited. However, the biggest risk at this point is if BTC fails to recover Strategy's average purchase price of $75,000 for an extended period, leading to a collapse of the MSTR premium and difficulty in securing additional funding. A key variable going forward is whether it transitions to directly selling BTC to pay preferred stock dividends and bond interest."
