Bitcoin (BTC) Retreats from $61,000... Bottom vs. Further Decline, Whose Prediction Will Be Right?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) retreated after breaking past $61,000, but a combination of short position liquidations and a rise in major altcoins reignited the debate about a market bottom in the cryptocurrency market.

According to crypto media outlet Benzinga on July 1 (local time), Bitcoin surpassed $61,000 that evening before falling back to the $59,000 range due to selling pressure. Over the past 24 hours, trading volume increased by 11%, and the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish trends continued.

Ethereum (ETH) rose to the mid-$1,600s before pulling back slightly, while XRP and Dogecoin (DOGE) also entered positive territory. According to Coinglass data, over $450 million in positions were liquidated in the cryptocurrency market over the past 24 hours, with short position liquidations accounting for $279 million.

Bitcoin open interest increased by 1.8% over the past 24 hours. During the same period, Bitcoin taker buy volume exceeded sell volume, indicating that bullish sentiment is being maintained in the market. Binance's retail investors and whale derivatives traders also maintained bullish positions on Bitcoin.

The global cryptocurrency market cap increased by 2.78% over the past 24 hours, reaching $2.07 trillion. Among major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin rose by 2.91%, Ethereum by 2.86%, XRP by 2.12%, Solana (SOL) by 6.46%, and Dogecoin by 1.75%. Cryptocurrency-related stocks also showed strength, with Strategy (MSTR) up 7.43% and BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) up 6.31%.

In contrast, the U.S. stock market paused for breath. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 13.96 points, or 0.03%, at 52,305.24, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.22% to 7,483.23, and the Nasdaq Composite ended trading down 0.66% at 26,040.03. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated at an international conference that “inflation is too high” but did not comment on what decisions the central bank would make at its July meeting. The CME Group FedWatch tool indicated that the market is pricing in a 71% chance of an interest rate freeze in July, while also seeing a nearly 50% chance of a rate hike in September.

Renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez stated that the cryptocurrency market has reached a bottom, citing TD Sequential buy signals for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. He said, “The monthly charts suggest a coordinated macro reversal structure,” adding, “Historically, when monthly buy signals are confirmed simultaneously across multiple assets, it indicates selling exhaustion and a high probability of a long-term market bottom.” However, Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin closed its monthly candle below the 50-month exponential moving average, located around $63,000. He stated, “Typically, after losing the 50-month exponential moving average, the price tends to turn it into a new resistance level, leading to further declines over time.”

[Article Key Summary]

-Bitcoin retreated to the $59,000 range after breaking past $61,000, but increased trading volume and open interest were presented as signs of sustained bullish sentiment.

-Over the past 24 hours, more than $450 million in positions were liquidated in the cryptocurrency market, with short position liquidations amounting to $279 million.

-Ali Martinez argued for a market bottom based on simultaneous buy signals for major cryptocurrencies, but Rekt Capital warned of potential further declines due to Bitcoin falling below its 50-month exponential moving average.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*