Bitcoin (BTC) Reclaims $60,000... Short-Term Rebound Continuation Hinges on 'Here'

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Cryptocurrency Wallet / ChatGPT Generated Image

Bitcoin (BTC) has successfully achieved a short-term rebound, reclaiming the $60,000 mark. However, as this recovery was driven by expectations for US monetary policy and technical buying, whether it can break past $62,450 will be the first test for sustained rebound.

According to CoinMarketCap's real-time price chart on July 2 (local time), Bitcoin rose by 2.66% over 24 hours to reach $60,629.68. The 24-hour trading volume was recorded at $39.29 billion. Based on real-time financial data, the intraday low was $58,279, and the intraday high was $61,030.

The primary background for this rebound is the shift in expectations for the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. On July 1, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh stated at the European Central Bank (ECB) forum that inflation risks have recently eased. The market interpreted these remarks as a signal of easing concerns about aggressive tightening, leading to an inflow of buying interest into Bitcoin, a risk asset. The fact that Bitcoin showed a 68% correlation with Gold also indicates that this movement was more sensitive to macroeconomic variables than to individual coin-specific factors.

Technical rebound also amplified the gains. Bitcoin rebounded after confirming support near the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level at $60,655. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 37.26, close to the oversold territory, leaving room for short-term buying pressure. Additionally, $120.82 million in short positions were liquidated over 24 hours, while long position liquidations only amounted to $26.67 million, indicating that a short squeeze amplified the rebound.

However, it is still premature to conclude that the recovery signifies a trend reversal. Bitcoin rebounded after falling to around its 2026 low of $57,735 and has climbed back above the psychological support level of $60,000. Nevertheless, if it fails to reclaim $62,450, where the 20-day exponential moving average is located, the rebound might be limited to a retracement within the $58,000 to $60,000 range.

Key variables for the future market outlook are US employment figures and the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. If Bitcoin holds above $60,000, attempts to re-break $62,450 could follow. Conversely, if it gives up $60,000 again, the possibility of retesting the year's low of $58,000 increases. Given the $4.5 billion net outflow from US Bitcoin spot ETFs in June, whether ETF capital flows turn into net inflows is also an important condition for confirming a bottom.

[Article Key Summary]

-Bitcoin recorded $60,629.68, up 2.66% over 24 hours according to CoinMarketCap.

-Former Fed Governor Warsh's remarks on easing inflation risks, support at the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level, and the liquidation of $120.82 million in short positions drove the rebound.

-Defending $60,000 and the ability to break past $62,450 are key variables for the continuation of the short-term recovery.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*