Circle (CRCL) Not Dead Despite OpenUSD Offensive...Bernstein: "200% Upside Possible"

▲ Circle, USDC, Stablecoin, USD/ChatGPT generated image

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) was shaken by the double whammy of OpenUSD (OUSD)'s emergence and its exclusion from the Russell Growth Index. However, Bernstein presented the possibility of a more than 200% rise, bolstering the potential for a counterattack from the leading stablecoin.

According to cryptocurrency specialized media The Street on July 1 (local time), Bernstein maintained its "outperform" rating for Circle Internet Group and reconfirmed its target price of $190. Circle is a cryptocurrency company well-known for USDC, which is considered a core pillar of the dollar-pegged stablecoin market alongside USDT.

Competitive pressure has increased. On June 30, OpenUSD was launched, with over 140 companies participating, including BlackRock (BLK), Coinbase (COIN), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and Aptos Labs. The Street reported that OpenUSD could attract a significant number of stablecoin users by leveraging its revenue-sharing model.

On the same day, Circle also received news of its exclusion from the Russell 1000 Growth Index, Russell 3000 Growth Index, and Russell Midcap Growth Index. Concerns that funds tracking these indices might reduce their exposure to Circle stock grew, causing Circle's stock price to start at $72.25 on June 30 and close at $62.63, a drop of over 13%.

Bernstein viewed the scale of the OpenUSD alliance as proof of the stablecoin market's growth itself, but not an immediate threat to Circle's position. Bernstein stated that USDC accounts for approximately 28% of the dollar-pegged stablecoin currency base, and an analysis of Visa's on-chain data showed that it processed $5.3 trillion in Q2 of this year alone. USDC's transaction volume share also increased from approximately 40% in 2025 to approximately 60% currently this year, surging by about 140% compared to the overall processing speed in 2025.

Bernstein interpreted Coinbase's cooperation with OpenUSD not as an intention to depart from USDC, but as a strategy to broaden mainstream stablecoin adoption. Bernstein also evaluated that Coinbase holds 25% of the USDC circulating on its platform, and Hyperliquid and Polymarket are also contributing to the Circle ecosystem. This is the backdrop against which Bernstein maintained its $190 target price despite intensified competition and the shock of index exclusion.

[Article Key Summary]

-Circle Internet Group's stock price dropped by over 13% on June 30 due to the launch of OpenUSD and news of its exclusion from the Russell Growth Index.

-Bernstein maintained an "outperform" rating and a $190 target price for Circle, suggesting an upside potential of over 200%.

-USDC processed $5.3 trillion in Q2 of this year alone, and its transaction volume share increased from approximately 40% last year to approximately 60% currently this year.

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