Bitcoin (BTC) Rebounds After Worst June... Analyst: "Drops to $52,000"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) saw its worst June since 2022, and the possibility of a drop to $52,000 has been raised. Consequently, the market's debate over the bottom is narrowing down to the 200-week moving average and the realized price.

According to crypto media outlet Cointelegraph on July 2 (local time), Bitcoin fell 20.5% in June, closing the month at $58,526. This is its worst monthly performance since June 2022. Bitcoin closed below the 200-week moving average at $62,000 but remained above the realized price of $52,000.

Crypto analyst PlanB, who created the stock-to-flow pricing model, analyzed this combination as a sign that the bear market bottom has not yet arrived. PlanB stated, “All past bear market bottoms formed below the realized price,” and suggested that Bitcoin could drop to $52,000. If this decline materializes, Bitcoin would have fallen approximately 60% from its all-time high of $126,000 recorded last October.

PlanB believes that while Bitcoin is currently priced below its value, the possibility of further decline cannot be ruled out. He said, “The current price is much lower than its value, and it could actually go even lower, below the realized price.” He added, “Bitcoin is undervalued, but it can go lower.” The realized price is an on-chain metric that represents the average acquisition cost of all circulating coins, calculated based on the price at which each unspent transaction last moved.

Andri Fauzan Adziima, Head of Research at Bitrue Research Institute, described the June closing structure, which was above the realized price and below the 200-week moving average, as “a signal that, based on previous cycles, the bear market bottom is still ahead.” He explained that while the correction in this cycle might be shallower than in the past due to institutional participation, he is watching for a capitulation phase by the end of 2026.

Lacie Zhang, Research Analyst at Bitget Wallet, diagnosed that the correction around $60,000 is approaching a potential bottoming zone, and there is a high probability that strong historical and technical support will form around $55,000 if further declines occur. Benjamin Cowen, founder of ITC Crypto, also pointed out that the second half of US midterm election years, like 2018 and 2022, have historically led to accumulation phases or market cycle bottoms. Bitcoin is undergoing intense scrutiny regarding the confirmation of a bear market bottom, situated between the $52,000 realized price, the $55,000 support zone, and the $62,000 200-week moving average.

[Article Key Summary]

-Bitcoin fell 20.5% in June, closing at $58,526, marking its worst monthly performance since June 2022.

-PlanB suggested a potential drop to $52,000, based on Bitcoin closing below the 200-week moving average but above the realized price.

-Market experts consider the $55,000 support zone and the potential for an accumulation phase in the second half of US midterm election years as key variables for determining the bottom.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*